An In-Depth Analysis of residential E-Cooling Demand in the Netherlands

Abstract

This thesis aimed to uncover the magnitude and effect of residential E-cooling demand on the Dutch energy market. Currently, little is known about the subject even though, due to rising temperatures and the increase in the amount of heat pumps, the amount and with that the effects of residential E-cooling demand is expected to rise sharply in the upcoming decades. First, the magnitude and patterns of residential E-cooling were uncovered by developing a thermodynamical model of the average Dutch residential houses. The effects of E-cooling were then tested by implementing the cooling demand in Pandapower and Plexos, testing the effects on local physical grids and on the overall power market respectively. The results showed a doubling of the cooling demand between 2025 and 2030 and a maximum annual cooling demand of approximately 0.4 TWh. The maximum cooling demand amounted to 2 TWh when alternative weather data was used reducing weather data limitations. In addition, it was shown how the demand for residential cooling has the potential to decrease local power quality when more than 40% of households actively cool their houses simultaneously, increasing network costs. Finally, it was also proven how power prices could increase due to higher demand and how revenue for certain generation components could double, or decrease by 20% in our grid during heat waves when accounting for residential E-cooling demand. This thesis provided among the first in-depth analysis of the magnitude and consequences of residential E-cooling demand on the Dutch energy market. It showed how cooling demand is expected to increase and what the consequences are of this increase.