How does knowledge utilization influence climate policy innovation? Energy modelling and the legitimization of the 55% target in the European Union

Abstract

In order to accelerate the energy transition, policies have proven successful to reduce emissions, but more policy innovations are needed to reach carbon neutrality. Despite some understanding of the process of such innovations, the role of knowledge is not addressed in a systematic way. In particular, the role of energy models has not been investigated thoroughly. In this article, we examined the types of knowledge utilization and the ways in which they influence the development of policy innovation. We focused on energy modelling and conducted a case study of the European Union's (EU) 55% climate target for 2030, and analytically distinguish three uses of model outputs (rational, legitimizing and enlightening), for which we nuance who uses what knowledge to what effect. Based on a qualitative content analysis of 33 text documents and 12 semi-structured interviews with EU policy modelers and policymakers, the results indicate that energy models enable and constrain policy innovations. Model outputs were mainly utilized to legitimize the previously formulated 55% target, but also in rational and enlightening ways for the development of a policy mix to achieve this target. However, the absence of assessments of higher targets might have inhibited the adoption of a more ambitious policy. Based on these results we identify enabling and inhibiting factors for the use of energy models in policymaking. Beyond energy modelling, the study develops our understanding of how different uses of knowledge affect policy innovation and lays the foundation for future studies on the uses of different kinds of knowledge.