Estimating the probability of vertical overlap from the paired aircraft data obtained in the european vertical data collection using the program DGLDiF

Estimating the probability of vertical overlap from the paired aircraft data obtained in the european vertical data collection using the program DGLDiF

Moek, G.

National Aerospace Laboratory NLR

1988-07-08

The problem of estimating the probability of vertical overlap in possible future airway systems with a vertical separation standard of 1000 ft above Flight Level 290 is addressed. It forms part of an overall safety assessment of such potential systems. The problem is solved by developing a mathematical probability model of the vertical distance between aircraft in a pair. A priori unknown model parameters are estimated by means of the maximum likelihood method from presently available data on the height keeping performance of aircraft in Europe. Special attention is given to the effect on the modelling process of the limited amount of data on large height keeping errors. The point estimate obtained is 6.6x10^-6, while an associated 95 per cent interval estimate is 2.3x10^-6 - 14.8x10^-6.

air traffic control
risk
flight altitude
threat evaluation
mathematic models
midair collisions
vertical orientation
proximity
probability theory
maximum likelihood estimates

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:11ed1430-d4fc-43e5-b0d1-78867fe13867

Nationaal Lucht- en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium

Campus only

NLR-TR 88108 U

Aerospace Engineering Reports

report

(c) 1988 National Aerospace Laboratory NLR