Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

Left-hand side BBN model for process safety

Van Gulijk, C.
Hanea, D.H.
Almeida, K.Q.
Steenhoek, M.
Ale, B.J.M.
Ababei, D.

Technology, Policy and Management

Values and Technology

2013-09-29

This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC frequencies for entire chemical plants in a single straightforward modeling approach in a single model. It is demonstrated that only four principle design rules are required to construct the blueprint for a model that is flexible and straightforward to work with. It was also found that design process for the components of the model is traceable and reproducible. A structured working procedure was designed to meet those requirements. A numerical validation process will follow in the future.

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4b4500df-76fb-45cb-b6e3-0261d592bc75

CRC Press/Balkema - Taylor & Francis Group

978-1-138-00123-7

ESREL 2013: Proceedings of the 22nd European Safety and Reliability Conference "Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon", Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 29 september-2 oktober 2013

Institutional Repository

conference paper

(c) 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK. Used with permission