The Use of Energy Models in Local Heating Transition Decision Making

The Use of Energy Models in Local Heating Transition Decision Making: Insights from Ten Municipalities in The Netherlands

Henrich, Birgit A. (Student TU Delft; TNO)
Hoppe, T. (TU Delft Organisation & Governance)
Diran, Devin (TNO)
Lukszo, Z. (TU Delft Energie and Industrie)

2021

In 2018, the Dutch national government announced its decision to end natural gas extraction. This decision posed a challenge for local governments (municipalities); they have to organise a heat supply that is natural gas-free. Energy models can decrease the complexity of this challenge, but some challenges hinder their effective use in decision-making. The main research question of this paper is: What are the perceived advantages and limitations of energy models used by municipalities within their data-driven decision-making process concerning the natural-gas free heating transition? To answer this question, literature on energy models, data-driven policy design and modelling practices were reviewed, and based on this, nine propositions were formulated. The propositions were tested by reflecting on data from case studies of ten municipalities, including 21 experts interviews. Results show that all municipalities investigated, use or are planning to use modelling studies to develop planning documents of their own, and that more than half of the municipalities use modelling studies at some point in their local heating projects. Perceived advantages of using energy models were that the modelling process provides perspective for action, financial and socio-economic insights, transparency and legitimacy and means to start useful discussions. Perceived limitations include that models and modelling results were considered too abstract for analysis of local circumstances, not user-friendly and highly complex. All municipalities using modelling studies were found to hire external expertise, indicating that the knowledge and skill level that municipal officials have is insufficient to model independently.

Energy modelling
data-driven policy design
heating transition
local policy
modelling practices
multi-model ecologies
municipality

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:890c6310-fbc6-4c17-bd0c-e34d8a5c36b1

https://doi.org/10.3390/en14020423

1996-1073

Energies, 14 (2)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 Birgit A. Henrich, T. Hoppe, Devin Diran, Z. Lukszo