Print Email Facebook Twitter Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data Title Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data Author Li, D. Daamen, W. Goverde, R.M.P. Faculty Civil Engineering and Geosciences Department Transport & Planning Date 2015-03-24 Abstract Train dwell time is one of the most unpredictable components of railway operations mainly due to the varying volumes of alighting and boarding passengers. For reliable estimations of train running times and route conflicts on main lines it is however necessary to obtain accurate estimations of dwell times at the intermediate stops on the main line, the so-called short stops. This is a big challenge for a more reliable, efficient and robust train operation. Previous research has shown that dwell time is highly dependent on the number of boarding and alighting passengers. However, the latter numbers are usually not available in real time. This paper discusses the possibility of a dwell time estimation model at short stops without passenger demand information, by means of a statistical analysis of track occupation data from the Netherlands. The analysis showed that the dwell times are best estimated for peak and off-peak hour separately. The peak hour dwell times are estimated using a linear regression model of train length, dwell times at previous stops and dwell times of the previous trains. The off-peak hour dwell times are estimated using a non-parametric regression model. There are two major advantages of the proposed estimation model. The model does not need passenger flow data which is usually impossible to know in real time in practice. Also, detailed parameters of rolling stock configuration and platform layout are not required, which eases implementation. Subject predictiondwell timeshort stopstrack occupationdata mining To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8f5c33a5-b6fe-4ec2-a222-629ad729a9a7 Source 6th International conference on Railway Operations Modelling and Analysis, RailTokyo2015, Narashimo, Japan, March 23-26, 2015; Authors version Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type conference paper Rights (c) 2015 The authors Files PDF 316620.pdf 660.54 KB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:8f5c33a5-b6fe-4ec2-a222-629ad729a9a7/datastream/OBJ/view