Print Email Facebook Twitter Updating scenarios Title Updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios Author van den Berg, Paulien (Student TU Delft) Scholten, D.J. (TU Delft Economics of Technology and Innovation) Schachter, Jonathan (Shell Global Solutions International B.V.) Blok, K. (TU Delft Energy and Industry) Date 2021 Abstract A dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term scenarios. Although the need to update scenarios for decision-making is recognized, a structured way for executing this process remains unclear. To configure a solution, we propose two concepts that need to be introduced: 1) that scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) that changes should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different distinguished layers. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date while guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. The framework is applied to a test case consisting of three scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Electric Vehicles are chosen as an uncertainty to illustrate how to structurally incorporate changes. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios. Subject Electric vehiclesElectricity marketFrameworkScenariosUncertaintyUpdating To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:4ce3b7c5-7059-404a-a732-8846bb130dc0 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102751 ISSN 0016-3287 Source Futures: the journal of policy, planning and futures studies, 130 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2021 Paulien van den Berg, D.J. Scholten, Jonathan Schachter, K. Blok Files PDF 1_s2.0_S0016328721000604_main.pdf 2.84 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:4ce3b7c5-7059-404a-a732-8846bb130dc0/datastream/OBJ/view