Revealing latent trajectories of (intended) train travel during and after COVID-19

Revealing latent trajectories of (intended) train travel during and after COVID-19

Kroesen, M. (TU Delft Transport and Logistics)
Le, Huyen T.K. (Ohio State University)
De Vos, Jonas (University College London)
Ton, Danique (N.V. Nederlandse Spoorwegen)
de Bruyn, Menno (N.V. Nederlandse Spoorwegen)

2023

This study investigates whether the decline in public transit ridership is a temporary phenomenon or indicative of a structural shift in travel patterns and attitudes. We estimate a latent class trajectory model using data from a comprehensive and large-scale survey administered by the Dutch national train operator conducted at eight different points in time after the onset of the pandemic. Six latent trajectories in train use and stated future intentions to use the train are revealed, showing different ‘recovery’ pathways. Whereas low-educated frequent commuters travel almost as much as before, highly educated frequent commuters and mixed-purpose travellers still travel much less, even in the last wave when all restrictions are lifted. The results indicate that travellers belonging to these classes have structurally changed their behaviour. The shift to working from home is more pronounced than the shift to private car use.

COVID-19
Longitudinal latent class model
Panel data
Stated future intentions
Train ridership
Working from home

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a6f98995-4bdf-4c86-9ec6-73300bf2056c

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.103952

1361-9209

Transportation Research. Part D: Transport & Environment, 124

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2023 M. Kroesen, Huyen T.K. Le, Jonas De Vos, Danique Ton, Menno de Bruyn