Title
Assessing the Impact of Metrics on the Choice of Prognostic Methodologies
Author
Bieber, M.T. (TU Delft Air Transport & Operations)
Verhagen, W.J.C. (Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University) 
Santos, Bruno F. (TU Delft Air Transport & Operations)
Date
2024
Abstract
Over the past years, advanced prognostic models and approaches have been developed. Most existing approaches are tailored to one specific system and cannot adaptively be used on different systems. This can lead to years of research and expertise being put into implementing prognostic models without the capacity to predict system failures, either because of a lack of data or data quality or because failure behavior cannot be captured by data-driven models. In addition, prognostic models are often evaluated using metrics only related to the correctness of predictions, preventing meaningful evaluation of operational performance. This paper makes use of a framework that can automatically choose prognostic settings based on specific system data. It simultaneously optimizes the choice of methodologies using metrics that capture multiple aspects of prediction quality. We apply this framework to both a simulated data set and a real aircraft data set to characterize the impact of metrics on the choice of prognostic methodologies. The results show that the choice of optimization metric greatly impacts the output of the generic prognostic framework and the overall performance. In addition, a definition for data suitability is provided and assessed on the aircraft system data sets.
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http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:c7b3ba18-62ce-43d2-ae95-ae03f72c349e
DOI
https://doi.org/10.2514/1.J063365
Embargo date
2024-07-09
ISSN
0001-1452
Source
AIAA Journal: devoted to aerospace research and development, 62 (2), 791-801
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2024 M.T. Bieber, W.J.C. Verhagen, Bruno F. Santos