A Markov Traffic Model for Signalized Traffic Networks Based on Bayesian Estimation

In order to better understand the stochastic dynamic features of signalized traffic networks, we propose a Markov traffic model to simulate the dynamics of traffic link flow density for signalized urban traffic networks with demand uncertainty. In this model, we have four different state modes for the link according to different congestion...

The influence of deviating conditions on levee failure rates

This study introduces a method for assessing the annual failure rate of levees based on information from historical floods, while also considering the return period of these past events. Also, an approach has been developed to quantify the influence of deviating conditions on failure rates. The presence of deviating conditions at failed and...

Novel Bayesian Additive Regression Tree Methodology for Flood Susceptibility Modeling

Identifying areas prone to flooding is a key step in flood risk management. The purpose of this study is to develop and present a novel flood susceptibility model based on Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) methodology. The predictive performance of the new model is assessed via comparison with the Naïve Bayes (NB) and Random Forest (RF...

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to Characterize Induced Earthquakes: Application to a M_L 3.4 Event in the Groningen Gas Field and the Role of Prior

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm is known to be highly efficient when sampling high-dimensional model spaces due to Hamilton's equations guiding the sampling process. For weakly non-linear problems, linearizing the forward problem enhances this efficiency. This study integrates this linearization with geological prior knowledge for...

Multicomponent material property characterization of atherosclerotic human carotid arteries through a Bayesian Optimization based inverse finite element approach

Objective: Plaque rupture in atherosclerotic carotid arteries is a main cause of ischemic stroke and it is correlated with high plaque stresses. Hence, analyzing stress patterns is essential for plaque specific rupture risk assessment. However, the critical information of the multicomponent material properties of atherosclerotic carotid...

Light, the universe and everything–12 Herculean tasks for quantum cowboys and black diamond skiers

The Winter Colloquium on the Physics of Quantum Electronics (PQE) has been a seminal force in quantum optics and related areas since 1971. It is rather mind-boggling to recognize how the concepts presented at these conferences have transformed scientific understanding and human society. In January 2017, the participants of PQE were asked to...

Deriving proper uniform priors for regression coefficients, Parts I, II, and III

It is a relatively well-known fact that in problems of Bayesian model selection, improper priors should, in general, be avoided. In this paper we will derive and discuss a collection of four proper uniform priors which lie on an ascending scale of informativeness. It will turn out that these priors lead us to evidences that are closely...

Inquiry calculus and the issue of negative higher order informations

In this paper, we will give the derivation of an inquiry calculus, or, equivalently, a Bayesian information theory. From simple ordering follow lattices, or, equivalently, algebras. Lattices admit a quantification, or, equivalently, algebras may be extended to calculi. The general rules of quantification are the sum and chain rules. Probability...

Bayesian evaluation and comparison of ontology alignment systems

Ontology alignment systems are evaluated by various performance scores, which are usually computed by a ratio related directly to the frequency of the true positives. However, such ratios provide little information regarding the uncertainty of the overall performance of the corresponding systems. The comparison is also drawn merely by the...