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A multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making analysis for technical-thermodynamic-economic evaluation considering the rock damage on production performance of hot dry rock geothermal resources

Xu, Fuqiang (author), Song, Xianzhi (author), Li, Shuang (author), Shi, Yu (author), Song, G. (author), Lv, Zehao (author), Yi, Junlin (author)

In the long-term mining of geothermal resources in hot dry rock (HDR), the change of thermal stress and pore pressure will increase fracture conductivity evolution, further improving production performance. The optimization and decision-making of the development scheme based on the impact of damage from fractures have yet to be reported. The...

journal article 2024

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Governance of uncertainty in implementing mobility innovations: A comparison of two Dutch cases

Akse, Ruben (author), Veeneman, Wijnand (author), Marchau, Vincent (author), Ritter, Simone (author)

To make the supply of transport services more attractive and sustainable, mobility suppliers and governmental actors expect much from mobility innovations. When developing and realizing these innovations, they experience considerable uncertainty about the future outcomes of implementing these innovations (1), and about other actors' intentions...

journal article 2023

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Agent decision-making: The Elephant in the Room - Enabling the justification of decision model fit in social-ecological models

Wijermans, Nanda (author), Scholz, G. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Heppenstall, Alison (author), Filatova, T. (author), Polhill, J. Gareth (author), Semeniuk, Christina (author), Stöppler, Frithjof (author)

Agent-based models are particularly suitable to reflect the dynamics of humans, nature, and their interactions, making them a crucial approach for understanding social-ecological systems. The formalisations of human decision-making are central to resulting model behaviours. Despite awareness of the complexity of human behaviour in social...

journal article 2023

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Modelling Southern Mesopotamia Irrigated Landscapes: How Small-scale Processes Could Contribute to Large-Scale Societal Development

Lang, D. (author), Ertsen, M.W. (author)

Early Southern Mesopotamia shows a complex history of expansion of (irrigated) farming in relation to urban developments and changing landscapes. As a first step to study expanding irrigated farming system, an irrigation-related agent-based model was developed to explore farm(land)s and irrigation systems in relation to decision-making...

journal article 2023

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Modelling farmland dynamics in response to farmer decisions using an advanced irrigation-related agent-based model

Lang, D. (author), Ertsen, M.W. (author)

Often, individual, communal, regional, or even national conflicts arise when water resources are shared and used. For equitable water-sharing strategies to be implemented, adequate collective action is required to allocate water – not limited to, but specifically in irrigation systems. In this research, we develop an Advanced Irrigation...

journal article 2023

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A conflict cluster-based method for collision avoidance decision-making in multi-ship encounter situations

Liu, Kezhong (author), Wu, Xiaolie (author), Zhou, Y. (author), Yuan, Zhitao (author), Yang, Xing (author), Xin, Xuri (author), Zhuang, Sujie (author)

During the process of collision avoidance, especially in a multi-ship encounter situation, the dynamic interactions among individual ships impose a significant impact on collision avoidance decision-making. It is imperative, therefore, that collision avoidance decisions are formulated with a comprehensive consideration of not only the current...

journal article 2023

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Exploring potential futures: Evaluating the influence of deep uncertainties in urban planning through scenario planning: A case study in Rome, Italy

Mannucci, Simona (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Morganti, Michele (author), Ferrero, Marco (author)

Cities play a critical role in developing adaptable strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change. However, the inherent complexity of urban environments and their uncertain future conditions necessitate exploring innovative approaches and tools to assist the current planning practices. This paper presents a workflow rooted in...

journal article 2023

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The influence of cognitive bias on crisis decision-making: Experimental evidence on the comparison of bias effects between crisis decision-maker groups

Paulus, D. (author), de Vries, G. (author), Janssen, M.F.W.H.A. (author), Van de Walle, Bartel (author)

A crisis requires the affected population, governments or non-profit organizations, as well as crisis experts, to make urgent and sometimes life-critical decisions. With the urgency and uncertainty they create, crises are particularly amenable to inducing cognitive biases that influence decisionmaking. However, there is limited empirical...

journal article 2022

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Differences in barriers for controlled learning about safety between biotechnology and chemistry

Bouchaut, B.F.H.J. (author), Hollmann, F. (author), Asveld, L. (author)

The increasing societal demand for safer, biobased products, and processes<br/>creates opportunities for industrial biotechnology and chemistry. To succeed,<br/>controlled learning about new emerging risks is crucial but both fields endure<br/>difficulty in doing so by their respective regulation and risk management culture.

journal article 2022

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Metamodel-based metaheuristics in optimal responsive adaptation and recovery of traffic networks

Teixeira, Rui (author), Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz (author), Nogal Macho, M. (author), O’Connor, Alan (author)

Different emerging threats highlighted the relevance of recovery and adaptation modelling in the functioning of societal systems. However, as modelling of systems becomes more complex, its effort increases challenging the practicality of the engineering analyses required for efficient recovery and adaptation. In the present work, metamodels...

journal article 2022

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Municipal governance and energy retrofitting of owner-occupied homes in the Netherlands

Ebrahimigharehbaghi, S. (author), Qian, QK (author), de Vries, G. (author), Visscher, H.J. (author)

The building sector is responsible for more than one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Netherlands has set an ambitious target to reduce GHG emissions by 95% by 2050 compared to the 1990 baseline. Several factors, such as low retrofitting rates, lead to uncertainties in achieving these targets. In the residential sector, the...

journal article 2022

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A multi-level governance response to the Covid-19 crisis in public transport

Hirschhorn, Fabio (author)

This paper examines the Dutch policy reaction to the financial crisis in the public transport sector caused by Covid-19. Using the multi-level governance theory complemented with the notion of informal governance, the analysis explains the decision-making that defined a State-aid scheme to public transport operators following a process of...

journal article 2021

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Supporting strategic decision-making on the future campus with space utilisation studies: a case study

Valks, B. (author), Blokland, E.H. (author), Elissen, C.J. (author), van Loon, I.C.D. (author), Roozemond, D.A. (author), Uiterdijk, P.J.L. (author), Arkesteijn, M.H. (author), Koutamanis, A. (author), den Heijer, A.C. (author)

Purpose: Across the world, many universities are dealing with a pressure on resources, caused by both organisational developments and ageing campuses. Space utilization studies have a strategic role, providing information on how space is being used, thereby informing decisions about the type and scale of facilities that are needed. Design...

journal article 2021

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Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Cantarelli, Chantal C. (author), Oglethorpe, David (author), van Wee, G.P. (author)

Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused on lock-in in the implementation phase. Moreover, little is known about the way in which decision-makers perceive the risk of lock-in. In this paper we identify...

journal article 2021

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Towards the integrated management of urban water systems: Conceptualizing integration and its uncertainties

Nieuwenhuis, E.M. (author), Cuppen, Eefje (author), Langeveld, J.G. (author), de Bruijn, J.A. (author)

Climate change and urbanization, as well as growing environmental and economic concerns, highlight the limitations of traditional wastewater practices and thereby challenge the management of urban water systems. Both in theory and in practice, it has been widely acknowledged that the challenges of the twenty-first century require solutions...

journal article 2021

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Analysing factorizations of action-value networks for cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning

Castellini, Jacopo (author), Oliehoek, F.A. (author), Savani, Rahul (author), Whiteson, Shimon (author)

Recent years have seen the application of deep reinforcement learning techniques to cooperative multi-agent systems, with great empirical success. However, given the lack of theoretical insight, it remains unclear what the employed neural networks are learning, or how we should enhance their learning power to address the problems on which...

journal article 2021

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Prediction of changes in seafloor depths based on time series of bathymetry observations: Dutch north sea case

Toodesh, R. (author), Verhagen, S. (author), Dagla, Anastasia (author)

Guaranteeing safety of navigation within the Netherlands Continental Shelf (NCS), while efficiently using its ocean mapping resources, is a key task of Netherlands Hydrographic Service (NLHS) and Rijkswaterstaat (RWS). Resurvey frequencies depend on seafloor dynamics and the aim of this research is to model the seafloor dynamics to predict...

journal article 2021

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Using natural language processing to explore heterogeneity in moral terminology in palliative care consultations

van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline (author), Gramling, Robert (author), Gothard, Kelly (author), Kroesen, M. (author), Chorus, C.G. (author)

Background: High quality serious illness communication requires good understanding of patients’ values and beliefs for their treatment at end of life. Natural Language Processing (NLP) offers a reliable and scalable method for measuring and analyzing value- and belief-related features of conversations in the natural clinical setting. We use a...

journal article 2021

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Operational safety economics: Foundations, current approaches and paths for future research

Chen, C. (author), Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (author), Khakzad, Nima (author), Yang, M. (author)

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the trade-off between economics and epidemic prevention (safety) has become painfully clear worldwide. This situation thus highlights the significance of balancing the economy with safety and health. Safety economics, considering the interdependencies between safety and micro-economics, is ideal for...

journal article 2021

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Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty

Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), de Haan, Fjalar J. (author), Bryan, Brett A. (author)

Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty...

journal article 2020