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Kurapati, S. (author), Lukosch, H.K. (author), Cunningham, S. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Verbraeck, A. (author)Planning tasks in modern, fully automated container terminals require a high awareness of the complex situation, and successful planning strategies. Operational planning includes both strategies of planning and resource management. As planning procedures are not (yet) fully automated, a skilled workforce of planners is needed to conduct the...conference paper 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Cunningham, S. (author)Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an uncertain model input space that are highly...journal article 2016
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Halim, R.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Tavasszy, Lorant (author)The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of...journal article 2016
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Auping, Willem L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)During the first months, the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus (EBOV) in West Africa was characterised by inadequate intervention capacities. In this paper, we investigate (1) the influence of limited but dynamic intervention capacities and their effect on the effective reproduction number, and (2) the effects of proactive versus reactive...journal article 2016
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Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...journal article 2016
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- Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author) journal article 2015
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Thissen, W.A.H. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Mens, M. (author), Van der Sluijs, J. (author), Stemberger, S. (author), Wardekker, A. (author), Wildschut, D. (author)Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible...journal article 2015
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Timmermans, J.S. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Hermans, L.M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Rutten, M.M. (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author)Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multiethnic) perspectives...conference paper 2015
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Holtz, G. (author), Alkemade, F. (author), De Haan, F. (author), Köhler, J. (author), Trutnevyte, E. (author), Luthe, T. (author), Halbe, J. (author), Papachristos, G. (author), Chappin, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Ruutu, S. (author)Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper...journal article 2015
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- Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bloemendal, Martin (author) abstract 2015
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Hermans, L.M. (author), Maat, J. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)New planning approaches put new requirements on evaluation. A recent innovation in the water domain is adaptive delta management (ADM). ADM supports long-term planning in the face of uncertainty. This paper discusses the main considerations for the design of an evaluation system for ADM, departing from literature on evaluation systems, adaptive...conference paper 2014
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is profoundly challenging. To deal with these uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies that can be changed over time are suggested. This paper presents a model-driven approach supporting the development of promising adaptation pathways, and illustrates the approach using...journal article 2014
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Pruyt, E. (author), Cunningham, S. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), De Bruijn, J.A. (author)Human-computer and human-system interaction has already received extensive attention from HCI research communities, yet there are a number of issues that has not been addressed so far. In this paper we propose a novel vision on future human-system interaction that is governed by the principle of affordances and facilitated by cyber physical...conference paper 2014
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Auping, W.L. (author), De Jong, S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...conference paper 2014
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)In many public policy issues diverging understandings of the system can be encountered. These diverging understandings can reside in the mental models of the different actors involved, or even be codified into structurally different models of the system. For an analyst it can be of great use to get insight into how and under what conditions the...conference paper 2014
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- Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author) conference paper 2014
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Van Deursen, W.P.A. (author), Guillaume, J.H.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Van Beek, E. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author)Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of...journal article 2014
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)Many grand challenges are both dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics with Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore, identify and analyze all sorts of plausible scenarios related to such issues, and design and test adaptive policies over many scenarios. This paper explains and illustrates...conference paper 2013
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J. (author)There has been a renewed interest over the last few years in limits to various earth bound systems and processes. This has been instigated by the work of Rockström and colleagues on planetary limits. Essentially, the planetary limit concept can be understood as a modern update to the seminal system dynamics work on limits to growth. The central...conference paper 2013
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Ter Maat, J. (author)A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet...journal article 2013