Advanced Data Fusion for Airport Surveillance

The surveillance function plays a key-role within an Advanced Surface Movement Guidance and Control System (A-SMGCS) since it provides essential information to the air traffic controllers as well as to other A-SMGCS functions. This paper presents an overview of airport surveillance research at the National Aerospace Laboratory NLR of the...

Geometric and probabilistic approaches towards Conflict Prediction

In this paper four conflict prediction approaches are considered: a classical geometric approach, two variations of a probabilistic approach developed by Paielli & Erzberger, based on conflict probability and overlap probability and a novel probabilistic approach. The objective of all conflict prediction approaches is to evaluate a set of...

Accident Risk Assessment for Advanced Air Traffic Management

By now, safety is recognised as a key quality on which to select/design advanced air traffic management (ATM) concepts, even when capacity and efficiency are the drivers of the development. The safety target is often described as 'equal or better' in comparison with existing practice, allowing a large freedom in how safety is expressed, let...

Human cognition modelling in Air Traffic Management safety assessment

This paper develops a mathematical model for cognitive performance of a tactical air traffic controller in an en-route ATC context. The aim of this model-based approach is to enable the evaluation of both accident risk and aspects like cognitive workload and effectiveness of ATC in managing air traffic situations safely.Use is made of human...

Probabilistic Approaches toward Conflict Prediction

In this paper four conflict prediction approaches are considered: a classical geometric approach, two variations of a probabilistic approach developed by Paielli ÖC Erzberger, based on conflict probability and overlap probability, and a novel probabilistic approach. The objective of all conflict prediction approaches is to evaluate a set of...

Human cognition modelling in ATM safety assessment

This paper develops a mathematical model for cognitive performance of a tactical air traffic controller in an en-route ATC context. The aim of this model-based approach is to enable the evaluation of both accident risk and aspects like cognitive workload and effectiveness of ATC in managing air traffic situations safely.Use is made of human...

RASMAR Final Report: Risk Analysis of Simultaneous Missed Approaches on Schiphol converging Runways I9R and 22

The increase in air traffic implies that for busy airports, such as Schiphol, new and advanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) procedures are being developed. For some proposed ATM procedures, ICAO regulations do not yet exist and a thorough safety assessment that incorporates the role of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and pilots is required. This study...

Piecewise Deteministic Markov Processes represented by Dynamically Coloured Petri Nets

Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDPs) are known as the largest class of Markov processes virtually describing all continuous-time processes not involving difftisions. In general the state space of a PDP is of hybrid type, i.e. a tensor product of a discrete set and a continuousvalued space. Since Stochastic Petri Nets have proven to be...

The layered safety concept, an integrated approach to the design and validation of air traffic management enhancements

The expected growth of air traffic asks for large enhancements in continental Air Traffic Management (ATM) to increase capacity. From a technology point of view a multitude of 'solutions' are available, such as introducing air-ground datalink, providing better support to the ATCo (Air Traffic Controller), introducing 4D air traffic control,...

A stochastic control approach to flight path monitoring

In the Programme for Harmonised Air Traffic management Research in Eurocontrol (PHARE) Medium Term Scenario, a number of Advanced Tools are described which must be developed in order to increase Air Traffic Control capacity and the flight efficiency of aircraft while keeping at least the same level of safety. One of these Tools is the Flight...

Bayesian estimation for decision-directed stochastic control

Stochastic processes with a decision-directed control are considered as controlled Markov processes, the state space of which is hybrid; i.e. a product of a discrete set and a Euclidean space. This approach yields a mathematical model for many problems of decision-directed stochastic control. In general, the observations made from the "past" and...

A method and measures to evaluate trackers for air traffic control

The general setup of the evaluation of a radar tracking algorithm in a civil ATC-system has been considered from an operational point of view. Both the present and the potential future use of trackdate has been taken in account. The result is a method to evaluate trackers for ATC on the basis of live-traffic data, under the assumption that a...

Comparison of a jump-diffusion tracker with a Kalman tracker: an evaluation with emphasis on air traffic control

A sophisticated starting point for a probabilistic approach to the radar tracking problem is a Markov jump-diffusion model for the aircraft dynamics, its control and the radar measurements. From nonlinear filtering theory, a closed form description of the evolution of the conditional distribution of this Markov process can be obtained. This jump...

Detection-filter representations for Markov jump diffusions

The problem considered is filtering for Gaussian observations of linear differential systems that are driven by both Wiener processes and marked Poisson point processes. Well-known representations of the MMSE-filter for such a Markov jump-diffusion are a differential for the evolution of its conditional density or differentials for all its...