A Bayesian network approach to coastal storm impact modeling

In this paper we develop a Bayesian network (BN) that relates offshore storm conditions to their accompagnying flood characteristics and damages to residential buildings, following on the trend of integrated flood impact modeling. It is based on data from hydrodynamic storm simulations, information on land use and a depth-damage curve. The...

An Idealized Meteorological-Hydrodynamic Model for Exploring Extreme Storm Surge Statistics in the North Sea

This paper explores an alternative method to determine extreme surge levels at the Dutch Coast. For this exploration, specific focus is on the extreme water level at Hoek van Holland, The Netherlands. The alternative method has been based on a joint probability model of the storm characteristics at the North Sea. The intent of this method is to...

Morphological modelling of strongly curved islands

Land reclamations and island coasts often involve strongly curved shorelines, which are challenging to be properly modeled by numerical morphological models. Evaluation of the long term development of these types of coasts as well as their response to storm conditions requires proper representation of the governing physical processes. Not all...

The role of bathymetry, wave obliquity and coastal curvature in dune erosion prediction

This study aims at reducing uncertainty in dune erosion predictions, in particular at complex dune coasts, in order to improve the assessment method for dune safety against flooding. To that end, state-of-the-art process-based dune erosion models are employed to further investigate issues insufficiently covered by the current Dutch safety...

Alternatieve benadering voor maatgevende waterstanden Nederlandse kust

Het stormseizoen is weer begonnen in Nederland. De duinen en dijken langs de Nederlandse kust kunnen in deze periode zwaar belast worden door een combinatie van hoge stormvloed en zware golven. Op dit moment worden deze waterkeringen getoetst en ontworpen met waterstandsgegevens die vooral gebaseerd zijn op statistische extrapolatie van...

Sensitivity of dune erosion prediction during extreme conditions

Coastal dunes play an important role in protecting low-lying hinterland from flooding. In The Netherlands, dunes form the major part of the primary sea defence, that protects half of the population and over two-third of the economy from the sea. To design and maintain coastal dunes that properly protect the hinterland, a regular safety...

Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to...

Reliability methods in OpenEarthTools

OpenEarthTools contains, apart from a lot of other tools in various programming languages, the probabilistic reliability methods FORM and Monte Carlo. This document aims at describing and providing background information and examples on the FORM and Monte Carlo implementation available in OpenEarthTools.

Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings,...

OpenEarth - Inter-Company Management of: Data, Models, Tools & Knowledge

Research, consultancy as well as construction projects commonly spend a significant part of their budget to set-up some basic infrastructure for data and knowledge management, most of which dissipates again once the project is finished. Standing initiatives so far have not been successful in providing a proper data and knowledge management...

Reliability of dune erosion assessment along curved coastlines

The dune assessment methods used to ensure the safety of the lower areas in The Netherlands are based on simple empirical relations that are, strictly speaking, only valid for infinitely long, uniform and straight coasts. The wide application of these relations is mainly justified due to intentional overestimation of the expected dune erosion....

Reducing uncertainty in prediction of dune erosion during extreme conditions

Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of dune erosion calculations

Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...

Verkenning effect van golfperiode op veiligheid duinenkust: Een probabilisitische beschouwing

Bij de beoordeling van de veiligheid van de Nederlandse duinenkust wordt gebruik gemaakt van een rekenmodel dat, voor vastgestelde ontwerpomstandigheden, de mate van duinafslag bepaalt. De kern van dit rekenmodel wordt gevormd door het zogenaamde DUROS-rekenmodel (TAW, 1984). Op basis van beschikbare informatie en het verwachte bereik van de...

De validatie van een rekenmodel voor het ontwerpen van afsluitwerken

Van half februari tot half december is aan het Waterloopkundig Laboratorium meegewerkt aan de fysische validatie van CLODES (Q1380), een rekenmodel voor het ontwerpen van afsluitingswerken. De validatie omvatte schaalmodelonderzoek naar de stabiliteit van steen op damkop, drempel en bodemverdediging bij gecombineerde sluitingsfasen (horizontale...