Strategies to combat salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers: A model-based exploratory analysis

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances in agriculture, water treatment, and water purification,...

Modeling the Dynamics of Canine Rabies and Policy Analysis under Uncertainty

Rabies is a viral fatal disease transmitted to humans mainly from dogs. Human deaths due to rabies have been increasing in recent years, especially in Africa and Asia where socioeconomic factors play an important role in the revival of the epidemic. In the current situation, it is unknown how the epidemic will evolve and which policies can...

Optimal Adaptive Policymaking under Deep Uncertainty? Yes we can!

Uncertainty manifests itself in almost every aspect of decision making. Adaptive and flexible policy design becomes crucial under uncertainty. An adaptive policy is designed to be flexible and can be adapted over time to changing circumstances and unforeseeable surprises. A crucial part of an adaptive policy is the monitoring system and...

Blue limits of the Blue Planet: An exploratory analysis of safe operating spaces for human water use under deep uncertainty

In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...

Analyzing the Dynamics of the Bio-methane Production Chain and the Effectiveness of Subsidization Schemes under Uncertainty

Bio-methane is a renewable gas option that can be injected to the natural gas grids to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to deal with natural gas supply problems. However, being based on several factors such as resource availability, competition between bio-methane and electricity sectors for biogas and biomass supply, demand,...

Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty: An ESDMA Approach

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk...

Exploring the Future of Wind-Powered Energy

Although there is a trend towards more sustainable energy system, the future of renewable energies is still deeply uncertain. Among the renewable resources, wind energy is considered to be a promising one. However, in the presence of deep uncertainty, what will be the future of wind-powered energy? Decision making under deep uncertainty for such...

A supply demand model for exploration of the future of the Dutch gas sector

Import dependency and the extent of renewable gas production are two outcomes of interest concerning the future of gas supply in the Netherlands. Due to the complexity of internal mechanisms and uncertainties associated with the natural gas production, the production of renewable gases, and the demand for gas, the future of these two outcomes of...

Investigating the Effects of Uncertainties Associated with the Unconventional Gas Development in the Netherlands

The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates,...

A system dynamics mode-based exploratory analysis of salt water intrusion in coastal aquifers

Coastal communities dependent upon groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation are vulnerable to salinization of the groundwater reserve. The increasing uncertainty associated with changing climatic conditions, population and economic development, and technological advances poses significant challenges for freshwater management. The...

Uncertainties in the development of unconventional gas production in the Netherlands

Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to...

Exploratory system dynamics: A directed search for limits to global water use

Rockström et al. (2009) introduced the concept of a safe operating space for humanity that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’. These limits are being investigated for various earth bound systems. Estimates of these limits are plagued by uncertainty. In case of the limits to the world water system, these uncertainties arise out...

Exploratory modeling and analysis: A promising method to deal with deep uncertainty

Faced with policy problems with high stakes, decisionmakers have increasingly recognized the importance of appropriately handling uncertainties. The nature of policy problems, however, is changing. Of particular concern are policy problems involving deep uncertainty when analysts do not know or the parties to a decision cannot agree upon (1) the...

The treatment of uncertainty in airport strategic planning

The treatment of uncertainty in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general and of mainports such as airports and seaports is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regulations, and the ever increasing connectedness of...

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...