Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for flood risk management in Galveston Bay: Making informed flood defence decisions for an uncertain future

Making decisions when future conditions are uncertain is a challenging endeavor. This thesis develops a framework to analyse flood risk and create Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, which can provide insights in the behaviour of flood risk protection measures in many future scenarios. The pathways are used to identify robust measures, dead ends...

Advancing Flood Risk Screening

Manycoastal cities are struggling with a rapidly growing risk of flooding. The sizeand complexity of these cities often demand a coordinated strategy, consistingof a combination of flood risk reduction measures. A crucial part in the designprocess is the identification of effective flood risk management strategies. However,data and resources are...

Belief-Informed Robust Decision Making (BIRDM): Assessing changes in decision robustness due to changing distributions of deep uncertainties

Robust Decision Making (RDM) is an established framework for decision making under deep uncertainty. RDM relies on the idea of scenario neutrality, namely that decision robustness is not affected by how scenarios are generated if these are uniformly distributed and span a sufficiently large range of future states of the world. Several authors...

Long-Term Adaptive Flood Risk Management: Investing in coastal protection and stormwater management under deep uncertainty

Flood risk management is the process of analysing, assessing and (if required) reducing flood risks, in terms of economic costs and affected population or loss of life. The analysis is performed through a probabilistic approach in which the factors are represented by a probability distribution function to address uncertainties. However, relevant...

Exploratory modeling: A tool for communicating the future: A case study of valuing flexibility in flood defense strategies

Decision-making for flood defense while facing a considerable change in driving forces demands other methods than the traditional approach of forecasting and optimal policy selection. Exploratory modeling can be a candidate for helping adaptive policymaking to deal with the uncertainties that confront decision-makers. In adaptive policymaking...