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He, Yuxin (author), Li, L. (author), Zhu, X. (author), Tsui, Kwok Leung (author)Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep...journal article 2022
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Streefkerk, I.N. (author), van den Homberg, Marc J.C. (author), Whitfield, Stephen (author), Mittal, Neha (author), Pope, Edward (author), Werner, Micha (author), Winsemius, H.C. (author), Comes, M. (author), Ertsen, M.W. (author)Droughts and changing rainfall patterns due to natural climate variability and climate change, threaten the livelihoods of Malawi's smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of the population. Provision of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) is one means to potentially increase the resilience of rainfed farming to drought by informing farmers in...journal article 2022
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Visser, L. R. (author), Kootte, M.E. (author), Ferreira, A. C. (author), Sicurani, O. (author), Pauwels, E. J. (author), Vuik, Cornelis (author), Van Sark, W. G.J.H.M. (author), AlSkaif, T. A. (author)Fluctuating electricity prices offer potential economic savings for the consumption of electricity by flexible assets such as Electric Vehicles (EVs). This study proposes an operational bidding framework that minimizes the charging costs of an EV fleet by submitting an optimized bid to the day-ahead electricity market. The framework consists...journal article 2022
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Liu, Y. (author), Pamososuryo, A.K. (author), Mulders, S.P. (author), Ferrari, Riccardo M.G. (author), van Wingerden, J.W. (author)The estimation of the rotor effective wind speed is used in modern wind turbines to provide advanced power and load control capabilities. However, with the ever increasing rotor sizes, the wind field over the rotor surface shows a higher degree of spatial variation. A single effective wind speed estimation therefore limits the attainable...journal article 2022
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Nagler, T.W. (author), Krüger, Daniel (author), Min, Aleksey (author)Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the maximal class of graph structures that guarantee stationarity under a natural and verifiable condition...journal article 2022
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Scarabaggio, P. (author), Grammatico, S. (author), Carli, Raffaele (author), Dotoli, Mariagrazia (author)In this article, we propose a distributed demand-side management (DSM) approach for smart grids taking into account uncertainty in wind power forecasting. The smart grid model comprehends traditional users as well as active users (prosumers). Through a rolling-horizon approach, prosumers participate in a DSM program, aiming at minimizing...journal article 2022
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Goedegebure, Niels (author), Hennig, R.J. (author)A higher share of renewables and electric vehicles increase the risk of congestion in electricity distribution systems. New distribution tariff designs have been proposed to prevent congestion. However, most modeling of tariff performance assumes deterministic price information. This paper proposes a method to assess the impact of price...conference paper 2022
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Paldino, Gian Marco (author), De Caro, Fabrizio (author), De Stefani, J. (author), Vaccaro, Alfredo (author), Villacci, Domenico (author), Bontempi, Gianluca (author)The limitation of transmission lines thermal capacity plays a crucial role in the safety and reliability of power systems. Dynamic thermal line rating approaches aim to estimate the transmission line’s temperature and assess its compliance with the limitations above. Existing physics-based standards estimate the temperature based on environment...journal article 2022
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Imhoff, R. O. (author), Brauer, C. C. (author), van Heeringen, K. J. (author), Uijlenhoet, R. (author), Weerts, A. H. (author)To assess the potential of radar rainfall nowcasting for early warning, nowcasts for 659 events were used to construct discharge forecasts for 12 Dutch catchments. Four open-source nowcasting algorithms were tested: Rainymotion Sparse (RM-S), Rainymotion DenseRotation (RM-DR), Pysteps deterministic (PS-D), and probabilistic (PS-P) with 20...journal article 2022
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Meydani, Amirreza (author), Dehghanipour, A. (author), Schoups, G.H.W. (author), Tajrishy, Massoud (author)Study region: This study develops the first daily runoff forecast system for Bukan reservoir in Urmia Lake basin (ULB), Iran, a region suffering from water shortages and competing water demands. Study focus: A weather forecast downscaling model is developed for downscaling large-scale raw weather forecasts of ECMWF and NCEP to small-scale...journal article 2022
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Ma, L. (author)Complex systems are made up of many interconnected components. The interactions between components further produce emerging complex collective behaviors. In most cases, a complex system can be represented as a network in which the nodes represent the elements and the connected links illustrate the interactions. The spreading process is one of...doctoral thesis 2021
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Brackenhoff, J.A. (author)Monitoring seismic wavefields caused by induced seismicity in the subsurface is a difficult process. Ideally, it requires physical receivers in the subsurface, which is unpractical. Frequently, only measurements at the surface of the Earth are available, which give a limited amount of information about the subsurface. One way to improve the...doctoral thesis 2021
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Li, G. (author), Knoop, V.L. (author), van Lint, J.W.C. (author)Accurate and explainable short-term traffic forecasting is pivotal for making trustworthy decisions in advanced traffic control and guidance systems. Recently, deep learning approach, as a data-driven alternative to traffic flow model-based data assimilation and prediction methods, has become popular in this domain. Many of these deep learning...journal article 2021
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Peled, Inon (author), Lee, Kelvin (author), Jiang, Yu (author), Dauwels, J.H.G. (author), Pereira, Francisco C. (author)As Public Transport (PT) becomes more dynamic and demand-responsive, it increasingly depends on predictions of transport demand. But how accurate need such predictions be for effective PT operation? We address this question through an experimental case study of PT trips in Metropolitan Copenhagen, Denmark, which we conduct independently of any...journal article 2021
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Lago, Jesus (author), Marcjasz, Grzegorz (author), De Schutter, B.H.K. (author), Weron, Rafał (author)While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique, not publicly available datasets and across too short and limited to one market test samples. The...review 2021
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Draxl, Caroline (author), Allaerts, D.J.N. (author), Quon, Eliot (author), Churchfield, Matt (author)To simulate the airflow through a wind farm across a wide range of atmospheric conditions, microscale models (e.g., large-eddy simulation, LES, models) have to be coupled with mesoscale models, because microscale models lack the atmospheric physical processes to represent time-varying local forcing. Here we couple mesoscale model outputs to a...journal article 2021
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van der Heijden, T.J.T. (author), Palensky, P. (author), Abraham, E. (author)In this paper we propose a Quantile Regression Deep Neural Network capable of forecasting multiple quantiles in one model using a combined quantile loss function, and apply it to probabilistically forecast the prices of 8 European Day Ahead Markets. We show that the proposed loss function significantly reduces the quantile crossing problem to ...conference paper 2021
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Chang, Ximing (author), Wu, Jianjun (author), Sun, Huijun (author), Correia, Gonçalo (author), Chen, JianHua (author)Free-floating bike sharing is an innovative and sustainable travel mode, where shared bikes can be picked up and returned at any proper place on the streets and not just at docking stations. Nevertheless, in these systems, two major problems arise. One is the imbalance of free-floating shared bikes (FFSB) between zones due to one-way trips,...journal article 2021
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van der Heijden, T.J.T. (author), Lago, Jesus (author), Palensky, P. (author), Abraham, E. (author)In this manuscript we explore European feature importance in Day Ahead Market (DAM) price forecasting models, and show that model performance can deteriorate when too many features are included due to over-fitting. We propose a greedy algorithm to search over candidate countries for European features to be used in a DAM price forecasting model,...journal article 2021
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Calkoen, Floris (author), Luijendijk, Arjen (author), Rivero, Cristian Rodriguez (author), Kras, Etienne (author), Baart, F. (author)Forecasting shoreline evolution for sandy coasts is important for sustainable coastal management, given the present-day increasing anthropogenic pressures and a changing future climate. Here, we evaluate eight different time-series forecasting methods for predicting future shorelines derived from historic satellite-derived shorelines....journal article 2021