MS

Marten Scheffer

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5 records found

Journal article (2026) - Jasper J. van Beers, Marten Scheffer, Prashant Solanki, Ingrid A. van de Leemput, Egbert H. van Nes, Coen C. de Visser
Maintaining stability in feedback systems, from aircraft and autonomous robots to biological and physiological systems, relies on monitoring their behavior and continuously adjusting their inputs. Incremental damage can make such control fragile. This tends to go unnoticed until a small perturbation induces instability (i.e., loss of control). Traditional methods in the field of engineering rely on accurate system models to compute a safe set of operating instructions, which become invalid when the, possibly damaged, system diverges from its model. Here we demonstrate that the approach of such a feedback system toward instability can nonetheless be monitored through dynamical indicators of resilience. This holistic system safety monitor does not rely on a system model and is based on the generic phenomenon of critical slowing down, shown to occur in the climate, biology, and other complex nonlinear systems approaching criticality. Our findings for engineered devices opens up a wide range of applications involving real-time early warning systems as well as an empirical guidance of resilient system design exploration, or “tinkering.” While we demonstrate the validity using drones, the generic nature of the underlying principles suggest that these indicators could apply across a wider class of controlled systems including reactors, aircraft, and self-driving cars. ...

A robust surge of cognitive distortions in historical language

Journal article (2021) - Johan Bollen, Marijn Ten Thij, Fritz Breithaupt, Alexander T.J. Barron, Lauren A. Rutter, Lorenzo Lorenzo-Luaces, Marten Scheffer
Journal article (2021) - Johan Bollen, Marijn ten Thij, Fritz Breithaupt, Alexander T. J. Barron, Lauren A. Rutter, Lorenzo Lorenzo-Luaces, Marten Scheffer
Individuals with depression are prone to maladaptive patterns of thinking, known as cognitive distortions, whereby they think about themselves, the world, and the future in overly negative and inaccurate ways. These distortions are associated with marked changes in an individual’s mood, behavior, and language. We hypothesize that societies can undergo similar changes in their collective psychology that are reflected in historical records of language use. Here, we investigate the prevalence of textual markers of cognitive distortions in over 14 million books for the past 125 y and observe a surge of their prevalence since the 1980s, to levels exceeding those of the Great Depression and both World Wars. This pattern does not seem to be driven by changes in word meaning, publishing and writing standards, or the Google Books sample. Our results suggest a recent societal shift toward language associated with cognitive distortions and internalizing disorders. ...
Poster (2021) - Martin Janssens, F. Glassmeier, Marten Scheffer, A.P. Siebesma, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano
Journal article (2021) - Martin Janssens, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Marten Scheffer, Coco Antonissen, A. Pier Siebesma, Franziska Glassmeier
Shallow cloud fields over the subtropical ocean exhibit many spatial patterns. The frequency of occurrence of these patterns can change under global warming. Hence, they may influence subtropical marine clouds’ climate feedback. While numerous metrics have been proposed to quantify cloud patterns, a systematic, widely accepted description is still missing. Therefore, this study suggests one. We compute 21 metrics for 5,000 satellite scenes of shallow clouds over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and translate the resulting data set to its principal components (PCs). This yields a unimodal, continuous distribution without distinct classes, whose first four PCs explain 82% of all 21 metrics’ variance. The PCs correspond to four interpretable dimensions: Characteristic length, void size, directional alignment, and horizontal cloud top height variance. These dimensions span a space in which an effective pattern description can be given, which may be used to better understand the patterns’ underlying physics and feedback on climate. ...