This thesis focuses on optimising the mortgage acceptance process at Achmea Bank, based on improved probability of default (PD) modelling. The objective is to improve the existing Advanced Internal Ratings-Based (A-IRB) model, originally designed for calculating capital requireme
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This thesis focuses on optimising the mortgage acceptance process at Achmea Bank, based on improved probability of default (PD) modelling. The objective is to improve the existing Advanced Internal Ratings-Based (A-IRB) model, originally designed for calculating capital requirements, and better tailor it to the credit acceptance mechanism. This research identifies areas where adjustments are necessary, including feature selection optimisation, the use of a more suitable target variable, and the exploration of multivariate isotonic regression as a non-parametric model for better estimating the nonlinear interactions among features and the target variable.
Earlier on, the thesis introduces an adapted dataset to mimic the setting of a mortgage acceptance process. This is where only the first observation of each facility in the dataset is used, unlike the original A-IRB model, which worked with more than one observation per facility.
The research employs logistic regression to model the probability of default, with a focus on the feature selection process that involves both univariate and multivariate analysis. Comparison among different models with target defaulting in 12 months and 24 months reveals that changing the target variable and improving the feature selection process results in better model performance.
The second focus of this thesis is isotonic multivariate regression, giving greater flexibility by fitting a nonlinear relationship between the risk drivers and target, but with the constraint of monotonicity. The minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) algorithm is used for the selection of features to reduce computational time.
Comparison across models reveals that the isotonic regression model, with greater recall and more accurate default detection, has a higher false-positive rate. Logistic regression with a 24-month target, on the other hand, strikes a better trade-off between precision and recall, leading to fewer false alarms and a lower number of flagged cases.
Overall, the thesis demonstrates that logistic regression and isotonic regression models both provide valuable information to Achmea Bank's mortgage acceptance. While logistic regression with a 24-month goal is an appropriate balance between recall and precision, multivariate isotonic regression can provide recall-improvement potential at the cost of precision. Subsequent studies should focus on reducing false positives within the isotonic regression model, exploring rejection inference procedures to adjust for potential sample bias, and examining other forms of classification procedures that can more effectively handle class imbalance.