Estimating the expectation of a Bernoulli random variable based on N independent trials is a classical problem in statistics, typically addressed using Binomial Proportion Confidence Intervals (BPCI). In the control systems community, many critical tasks—such as certifying the statistical safety of dynamical systems—can be formulated as BPCI problems. Conformal Prediction (CP), a distribution-free technique for uncertainty quantification, has gained significant attention in recent years and has been applied to various control systems problems, particularly to address uncertainties in learned dynamics or controllers. A variant known as training-conditional CP was recently employed to tackle the problem of safety certification. In this note, we highlight that the use of training-conditional CP in this context does not provide valid safety guarantees. We demonstrate why CP is unsuitable for BPCI problems and argue that traditional BPCI methods are better suited for statistical safety certification.

The abstraction of dynamical systems is a powerful tool that enables the design of feedback controllers using a correct-by-design framework. We investigate a novel scheme to obtain data-driven abstractions of discrete-time stochastic processes in terms of richer discrete stochastic models, whose actions lead to nondeterministic transitions over the space of probability measures. The data-driven component of the proposed methodology lies in the fact that we only assume samples from an unknown probability distribution. We also rely on the model of the underlying dynamics to build our abstraction through backward reachability computations. The nondeterminism in the probability space is captured by a collection of Markov Processes, and we identify how this model can improve upon existing abstraction techniques in terms of satisfying temporal properties, such as safety or reach-avoid. The connection between the discrete and the underlying dynamics is made formal through the use of the scenario approach theory. Numerical experiments illustrate the advantages and main limitations of the proposed techniques with respect to existing approaches.

We introduce a novel approach for the construction of symbolic abstractions - simpler, finite-state models - which mimic the behaviour of a system of interest, and are commonly utilized to verify complex logic specifications. Such abstractions require an exhaustive knowledge of the concrete model, which can be difficult to obtain in real-world applications. To overcome this, we propose to sample finite length trajectories of an unknown system and build an abstraction based on the concept of ℓ -completeness. To this end, we introduce the notion of probabilistic behavioural inclusion. We provide probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees that such an abstraction, constructed from experimental symbolic trajectories of finite length, includes all behaviours of the concrete system, for both finite and infinite time horizon. Finally, our method is displayed with numerical examples.