Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep learning approach, Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) is proposed to forecast passenger flow in urban rail transit systems to incorporate these complex factors. We propose to use multiple graphs to encode the spatial and other heterogenous inter-station correlations. The temporal dynamics of the inter-station correlations are also modeled via the proposed multi-graph convolutional-recurrent neural network structure. Inflow and outflow of all stations can be collectively predicted with multiple time steps ahead via a sequence to sequence(seq2seq) architecture. The proposed method is applied to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow in Shenzhen Metro, China. The experimental results show that MGC-RNN outperforms the benchmark algorithms in terms of forecasting accuracy. Besides, it is found that the inter-station driven by network distance, network structure, and recent flow patterns are significant factors for passenger flow forecasting. Moreover, the architecture of LSTM-encoder-decoder can capture the temporal dependencies well. In general, the proposed framework could provide multiple views of passenger flow dynamics for fine prediction and exhibit a possibility for multi-source heterogeneous data fusion in the spatiotemporal forecast tasks.

Spatiotemporal modeling and forecasting is an essential task for many real-world problems, especially in the field of transportation and public health. The complex and dynamic patterns with dual attributes of time and space create unique challenges for effective modeling and forecasting. With the advancement of data collection, storage, and sharing technologies, the amount of data and the types of data available for spatiotemporal modeling research in transportation and public health are rapidly increasing. Some traditional spatiotemporal methods become obsolete. There is a need to review existing methods and propose new ones to harness the power of newly available data. Therefore, in this chapter, we conduct a comprehensive survey of methods and algorithms for spatiotemporal monitoring and forecasting, focusing on applications in transportation and public health. Then, we propose a systematic framework to incorporate three different approaches: statistical methods, machine learning methods, and mechanistic simulation methods. The proposed framework is expected to help researchers in the field to better formulate spatiotemporal problems, construct appropriate models, and facilitate new developments that combine the strengths of mechanistic approaches and data-driven ones. The proposed general framework is illustrated via examples of spatiotemporal methods developed in transportation and public health.

With the dynamic air traffic demand and the constrained capacity resources, accurately predicting airport throughput is essential to ensure the efficiency and resilience of air traffic operations. Many research efforts have been made to predict traffic throughputs or flight delays at an airport or over a network. However, it is still a challenging problem due to the complex spatiotemporal dynamics of the highly interacted air transportation systems. To address this challenge, we propose a novel deep learning model, graph attention neural network stacking with a Long short-term memory unit (GAT-LSTM), to predict the short-term airport throughput over a national air traffic network. LSTM layers are included to extract the temporal correlations in the data, while the graph attention mechanism is used to capture the spatial dependencies. For the graph attention mechanism, two graph modeling methods, airport-based graph and OD-pair graph are explored in this study. We tested the proposed model using real-world air traffic data involving 65 major airports in China over 3 months in 2017 and compared its performance with other state-of-the-art models. Results showed that the temporal pattern was the dominate factor, compared to the spatial pattern, in predicting airport throughputs over an air traffic network. Among the prediction models that we compared, both the proposed model and LSTM performed well on prediction accuracy over the entire network. Better performance of the proposed model was observed when focusing on airports with larger throughputs. We also conducted an analysis on model interpretability. We found that spatiotemporal correlations in the data were learned and shown via the model parameters, which helped us to gain insights into the topology and the dynamics of the air traffic network.

In the above article [1], Table I, III, and IV should show 'N/m' instead of 'kN/m' and they should also show 'Ns/m' instead of 'kNs/m.' The revised tables are shown below. Also, in (1), “k_pw ” should be changed to “k_pw.” And on page 2952, first line, in the left column, “They also found…” should be changed to “We also found…”.

This study proposes an efficient approach to detect one or more change points for gamma distribution. We plug a closed-form estimator into the gamma log-likelihood function to obtain a sharp approximation to the maximum of log-likelihood. We further derive a closed form calibration of approximate likelihood which is asymptotically equivalent to the exact log-likelihood. This circumvents iterative optimization procedures to find maximum likelihood estimates which can be a burden in detecting multiple change points. The simulation study shows that the approximation is accurate and the change points can be detected much faster. Two case studies on the time between events arising from industrial accidents are presented and extensively investigated.

A novel data-driven framework to monitor the health status of high-speed rail suspension system by measuring train vibrations is proposed herein. Unlike existing methods, this framework does not rely on sophisticated dynamic models or high-fidelity simulations; it combines the power of data and domain knowledge to generate a model that can be trained quickly and adapted easily to different rail systems. In addition, the framework includes a module to generate a training dataset, tackling a typical challenge in real-world system monitoring, namely, the lack of labeled data due to practical limits. Based on the multi-output support vector regression (MSVR), the proposed framework can monitor the stiffness and damping coefficients of the suspension system using vibration signals measured on trains in real time. The framework comprises three modules. First, a simple suspension system dynamics model is built to generate a training dataset. Furthermore, key features are extracted from frequency response curves to reflect the impact of spring and damper degradation. Subsequently, a supervised learning model based on the MSVR is built to predict the stiffness and damping coefficients of suspension systems from features extracted in the second module. Once the model is built, real-time monitoring can be achieved by feeding the vibration signals as they are collected during operations. The proposed framework was evaluated on simulation data for its accuracy and tested on real-world operational data for its practicability.