The modeling of spectral characteristics of light-emitting diodes (LED) has been addressed in various studies. We extend the current state of knowledge by modeling the spectral characteristics of commercially available high-power LEDs, exhibiting a temperature-dependent degradation, by using a different modeling strategy. To this end, the state of the art approach of an additive superposition of probability density functions (PDF) is compared with an unsupervised machine learning approach called non-negative matrix factorization (NMF). The stress test data used in our modeling routine was collected for a period of 6000 hours at four different case temperatures between 55 C and 120 C. The results of the accelerated stress tests indicate a temperature-activated aging process, which can be described using the Arrhenius equation. By combining the Arrhenius equation with the modeling parameters, the spectral characteristics can be modeled for 6000 hours of stress at four different stress test temperatures. The introduced spectral modeling approach using non-negative matrix factorization achieves CIE 1976 UCS chromaticity differences primarily smaller than Δ u'v'≤ 0.001 and proves to be superior to superimposed probability density functions in terms of colorimetric reconstruction accuracy, modeling complexity and robustness against spectral outliers.