The study delves into integrating green hydrogen technologies into the Iberian Peninsula's energy transition toward 2030, focusing on impacts and uncertainties. Both Spain and Portugal have national plans aiming to decarbonize critical sectors using renewable energies and green hydrogen.

The research investigates hydrogen's role in buffering excess renewable electricity and substituting fossil fuels in industry and power generation. It aims to understand how Spain and Portugal can achieve decarbonization goals through energy storage and hydrogen integration.

Using an optimization model and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA), the study addresses the complexity and uncertainty of the Iberian energy system. Data from various sources including the IEA and transmission operators were used.

Findings reveal sensitivity to electrolyzer capacity, influencing green hydrogen production. Despite cost uncertainties, the system aims to minimize costs by installing comparable renewable energy capacity. Renewable source selection is influenced by costs, favoring wind over solar when costs decrease.

Results suggest a tendency to rely more on natural gas than nuclear energy for cost minimization. Robust policy recommendations emphasize adaptive policies to overcome barriers in the energy transition. Green hydrogen promotion is crucial, acting as an energy storage medium and linking electricity and gas markets.

Conclusions highlight the technical and economic viability of hydrogen integration, contingent on appropriate policies and innovation. Continued research and development in hydrogen and energy storage are crucial for a successful transition.