The escalating impacts of climate change have placed energy-related issues at the forefront of global political agendas, highlighting the critical role of energy policy in shaping sustainable futures. Energy policymaking is inherently complex, as it must reconcile the interests of multiple stakeholders while managing a highly interconnected and technically intricate energy system. Energy system modeling has emerged as a crucial tool for supporting policymakers in navigating this complexity, giving rise to a model-policy interface that mediates the translation of quantitative insights into actionable policy decisions. However, the occurrence of energy crises, which are historically frequent and impactful, raises important questions about how such crises influence the functioning of this interface and the role that energy system modeling plays during periods of heightened urgency.

This research investigates the influence of crisis situations on the use and impact of energy system modeling in policymaking. The study employs a mixed qualitative approach, combining a comprehensive literature review with semi-structured interviews of experts involved in the model-policy interface, including energy modelers, policymakers, and industry professionals. The interviews were analyzed using qualitative content analysis, which generated three key thematic insights regarding stakeholder roles, crisis urgency, and the impact of uncertainty on modeling’s influence.

The first theme, stakeholder reflections on roles and challenges, highlights how modelers and policymakers perceive their positions within the interface. Modelers see themselves as providing supportive, analytical input, while policymakers emphasize the value of interaction with modeling experts to inform decision-making. Nonetheless, challenges persist due to the inherent complexity of models, time constraints in policymaking, and gaps in technical expertise among stakeholders, which can hinder effective communication and utilization of model results.

The second theme, urgency modulates the role of modeling in crises, differentiates between low-urgency and high-urgency crises. In low-urgency situations, the model-policy interface experiences increased collaboration, alignment, and deliberation, allowing for more considered and evidence-based policy decisions. Conversely, high-urgency crises shift decision-making to the political domain, constraining administrative freedom and reducing the opportunity for detailed modeling input. As a result, the ability to leverage quantitative insights diminishes, and rapid policy responses often take precedence over model-informed strategies.

The third theme, uncertainty, addresses the nuanced impact of crisis-induced ambiguity on modeling. While increased uncertainty can elevate the demand for model-based insights, several factors complicate this relationship: models may not be suitable for crisis-specific problems, inherent uncertainties may already dominate, and the time required for detailed modeling may limit its relevance in urgent scenarios.

The findings align partially with existing literature on the model-policy interface, particularly regarding challenges in knowledge translation and the time-intensive nature of modeling. They extend the literature by emphasizing the role of crisis perception—specifically urgency and uncertainty—in shaping the effectiveness and influence of energy system models. The study highlights the need for frameworks that can systematically assess the impact of crises on model utilization and offers a foundation for future research to explore strategies that enhance the resilience and responsiveness of the model-policy interface under crisis conditions. ... Read more