Sustainable river management often requires long-term morphological simulations. As the future is unknown, uncertainty needs to be accounted for, which may require probabilistic simulations covering a large parameter domain. Even for one-dimensional models, simulation times can be long. One of the acceleration strategies is simplification of models by neglecting terms in the governing hydrodynamic equations. Examples are the quasi-steady model and the diffusive wave model, both widely used by scientists and practitioners. We established under which conditions these simplified models are accurate. Based on results of linear stability analyses of the St. Venant-Exner equations, we assessed migration celerities and damping of infinitesimal, but long riverbed perturbations. We did this for the full dynamic model, i.e. no terms neglected, as well as for the simplified models. The accuracy of the simplified models was obtained from comparison between the characteristics of the riverbed perturbations for simplified models and the full dynamic model. We executed a spatial-mode and a temporal-mode linear analysis and compared the results with numerical modelling results for the full dynamic and simplified models, for very small and large bed waves. The numerical results match best with the temporal-mode linear analysis. We show that the quasi-steady model is highly accurate for Froude numbers up to 0.7, probably even for long river reaches with large flood wave damping. Although the diffusive wave model accurately predicts flood wave migration and damping, key morphological metrics deviate more than 5% (10%) from the full dynamic model when Froude numbers exceed 0.2 (0.3).@en

The morphological configuration of estuaries and tidal basins influences future development because the channel-flat pattern and geometry control tidal dynamics and, as a result, residual sediment transport patterns. Large-scale human alteration of estuarine plan-form and channel dimensions, as a result of land reclamation, influences long-term evolution, because the existing balance of sediment import versus export is disrupted. The morphodynamic response to land reclamation is, however, slow, impacting the system for decades to centuries. Consequently, there are usually multiple human interventions cumulatively impacting the system. Our understanding of the cumulative effects of land reclamation and other anthropogenic interference is limited because observations usually do not span the complete morphological adaptation time. The Ems estuary (bordering The Netherlands and Germany) provides an unique site to study the effects of the cumulative impact of land reclamations and 20th-century human interference. Extensive storm surge-formed basins have been gradually reclaimed over a period of 500 years in this well-documented estuary, and dredging works dominated in the past century. Our objective is to quantify the effects of land reclamations and channel dredging on the historic evolution of the Ems estuary from century-scale observations combined with numerical morphodynamic modelling. We compiled a digitized bathymetric dataset, spanning nearly the full reclamation period, from historical maps, nautical charts, and recent sounding observations. The dataset was used to reconstruct the morphological evolution of the estuary over the past 500 years. The centennial-scale morphodynamic trends show that the system responded to land reclamation by subtidal infilling and evolved from a multichannel system separated by shoals to a single channel system flanked by fringing flats. The long-term geometric changes show that the main system-scale morphodynamic adaptation is controlled by the effects of land reclamation. The present-day evolution is additionally influenced by the effects of 20th-century dredging works. A process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D-FM), forced with a synthetic spring-neap tidal cycle, was used to investigate the Ems estuary channel evolution in response to historical land reclamations. Simulation results showcase the transformation from an initially flat-bed bathymetry to a system with multiple channels and tidal flats when historic storm surge basins provide extensive intertidal areas. Simulations in which these former storm surge basins are reclaimed result in a single-channel system, confirming the influence of land reclamations on the observed evolution. The results of this study emphasize that, contrary to what is generally assumed, pre-dredging estuarine morphologies are often far from pristine. Ongoing research focuses on quantifying the interplay between natural and human-driven factors in century-scale channel evolution.@en

Sustainable river management can be supported by models predicting long-term morphological developments. Even for one-dimensional morphological models, run times can be up to several days for simulations over multiple decades. Alternatively, analytical tools yield metrics that allow to estimate migration celerity and damping of sediment waves, which have potential for being used as rapid assessment tools to explore future morphological developments. We evaluate the use of analytical relations based on linear stability analyses of the St. Venant-Exner equations, which apply to sediment waves with spatial scales much larger than the water depth. With a one-dimensional numerical morphological model, we assess the validity range of the analytical approach. The comparison shows that the propagation of small bed perturbations is well-described by the analytical approach. For Froude numbers over 0.3, diffusion becomes important and bed perturbation celerities reduce in time. A spatial-mode linear stability analysis predicts an upper limit for the bed perturbation celerity. For longer and higher bed perturbations, the dimensions relative to the water depth and the backwater-curve length determine whether the analytical approach yields a good approximation. For higher bed wave amplitudes, non-linearity becomes important. For Froude numbers ≤0.3, the celerity of bed waves is increasingly underestimated by the analytical approach. The degree of underestimation is proportional to the ratio of bed wave amplitude to water depth, and the Froude number. For Froude numbers exceeding 0.3, the net impact on the celerity depends on the balance between the decrease due to damping and the increase due to non-linear interaction.@en

The Ems Estuary presents an enigmatic environment where a storm-generated intertidal basin interacts with a navigation channel subject to extremely high suspended sediment concentrations. Despite ebb dominance in parts of the navigation channel, the residual transport is directed landward, necessitating continuous maintenance dredging. The puzzling context has led to the suspicion that the intertidal basin delivers sediment to the main channel, rather than acting as a storage area. A field campaign has been setup to quantify and analyze suspended sediment transport processes controlling the sediment balance in a rectangular control volume over the width of the navigation channel, which is bounded on one side by the intertidal basin. The control volume is chosen exactly in the stratified region where the tidal flow switches from ebb dominant to flood dominant. Standard equipment including multifrequency ADCPs, a CTS, a LISST200X, and an OBS were employed, and new frame was developed to obtain centimeter scale velocity profiles of the bottom meter. Results reveal the mechanism by which the intertidal basin plays a key role in the residual landward sediment transport in the navigation channel.@en