Railways are in need of technological and operational enhancements to achieve the EU strategic vision of a sustainable, integrated transport system. Beside the deployment of digital signalling and automatic train operations, advanced rail traffic management is critical to increase rail transport capacity and provide a seamless intermodal integration. To this aim, the concept of self-organisation has been recently proposed, which involves intelligent trains to autonomously decide and locally negotiate optimised traffic strategies. Although science considers self-organisation key to an efficient flexible rail service, the view of the industry is still unclear. Characterising the industrial perspective is instead essential to evaluate investment and migration plans of future rail developments. This paper addresses such a need by a multi-target Delphi analysis outlining an expert perspective on current traffic management gaps, potentials of self-organisation as well as critical steps and recommendations enabling a paradigm migration. Analysis results indicate that the state-of-practice is limited by technological and legal barriers to transport data sharing, slow rail digitalisation and organisational separation between infrastructure and operations. Traffic self-organisation could overcome current limitations only if it fosters digitalisation, a cooperative business model and policies for intermodal planning and data sharing. The rail market could be expanded by easier investor accessibility and a more attractive demandeffective intermodal rail service. Stakeholders’ reluctance in approving novel business models, policies and rules is however a threat to this paradigm. Feasibility studies, round-tables and joined sector actions are recommended for defining policies, proofof- concepts and plans for migrating to a self-organising rail traffic.

To further improve the capacity on the European railway network, next-generation distance-to-go signalling systems are being developed in the context of the European Train Control System (ETCS). This paper investigates the impact of track discretisation granularity on conflict detection and resolution for ETCS with onboard train integrity monitoring. The study enhances a previously developed model for fixed-block distance-to-go signalling introducing a track discretisation procedure and reformulating safe train separation constraints at switches. The assessment is performed on a junction and a corridor case study, using track discretisations with maximum section lengths from 50 to 800 metres. Though finer discretisations potentially improve the model objective, computation times quickly increase. While the results show minimum effects of the track discretisation on the conflict detection and resolution, they suggest that maximum section lengths of 200 or 400 metres may offer a good balance between solution quality and computation complexity, depending on the track layout and traffic density.

In case of disturbed railway operations, traffic management can apply rescheduling measures to resolve conflicts while minimising delay propagation. This can be optimised by conflict detection and resolution (CDR) models. Usually based on alternative graph or mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulations, existing models mostly refer to conventional signalling systems in which the track is discretised into blocks. Only at block entries, trains can receive a brake indication. Hence, train separation distances are based on a number of blocks. With the implementation of continuous braking curve supervision in distance-to-go (DTG) signalling systems such as the European Train Control System (ETCS), train separation is based on absolute braking distances. Consequently, an explicit relation between speed and train separation is required in CDR models for DTG signalling. Recently, we enhanced the CDR model RECIFE-MILP to DTG operations. The enhancements relate to track discretisation and speed-dependent train separation. In this research, we investigate the effect of track discretisation granularity on the performance of the enhanced model for next-generation DTG signalling systems: ETCS Level 3 Fixed Virtual Block and Moving Block. The performance is assessed regarding total delay and rescheduling decisions. The results indicate that, depending on the track and traffic scenario, a finer granularity can lead to different rescheduling decisions due to shorter train separation.

Railway industry is developing advanced signalling systems like moving block to improve network capacity. In traditional fixed-block systems, safe train separation is determined based on a fixed number of block sections representing worst-case braking distances. In moving-block systems, the train separation is reduced to absolute braking distances. The introduction of moving-block signalling requires a change in operational rules and hence in real-time conflict detection and resolution methods in case of disturbances. Existing conflict detection and resolution models are mainly based on fixed-block signalling and the available models for moving-block signalling do not sufficiently represent the dynamic relation between safe train separation and actual train speeds.
To address this gap, we propose a conflict detection and resolution model that approximates moving-block operations. The model enhances the state-of-the-art fixed-block model RECIFE-MILP. The enhancements include a reconsideration of the discretisation of the infrastructure, the introduction of a speed profile alternative and a redefinition of blocking times. With this, the model is able to include speed-dependent occupation times, train separation based on absolute braking distances and continuous braking curve supervision.
We present the reformulated MILP (mixed integer linear programming) model and apply it to two French case studies: the Gonesse junction and a part of the Paris-Le Havre line. For various one-hour periods, rescheduling strategies and disturbance scenarios, we compare the optimal solutions of the enhanced and the original RECIFE-MILP model in terms of total train delay and rescheduling decisions. The results show that the enhanced model can propose different rescheduling decisions than the original model, with a better delay recovery exploiting the moving-block system.

Conflict detection and resolution models are being developed to support railway traffic management in taking optimised rescheduling decisions in case of disturbances. Existing models mostly concern fixed-block signalling systems, in which minimum train separation distances are determined based on a preset number of blocks representing worst-case braking distances. In a moving-block signalling system, minimum train separation is based on absolute braking distances and hence depends on train speed differently from how fixed-block conflict detection and resolution models. In this paper, we propose a conflict detection and resolution model that approximates moving-block operations. The model enhances the state-of-the-art fixed-block rescheduling model RECIFE-MILP. The enhancements include a reconsideration of the discretisation of the infrastructure, the introduction of a speed profile alternative and a redefinition of the blocking times. We verify the model by comparing the solutions of the moving-block version with the fixed-block version for a specific scenario. The results indicate that the moving-block model can propose different rescheduling decisions than the fixed-block model with a better delay recovery.

Railway traffic management is responsible for the detection and resolution of conflicts in case of disturbed operations. To minimise delay propagation, rescheduling decisions are taken by human dispatchers, possibly supported by mathematical models. Existing conflict detection and resolution (CDR) models mostly refer to conventional fixed-block multi-aspect signalling systems, in which minimum train headways are determined based on a preset number of blocks considering worst-case braking distances and number of signal aspects. In moving-block signalling systems, minimum headways are based on absolute braking distances. This paper reviews literature on CDR with the aim to identify gaps and to propose next steps in the research on CDR under moving-block signalling. A research agenda presents various modelling options, for which modelling approaches are proposed based on a comparative analysis.

This deliverable has the objective to define a mathematical model for an optimised real-time management of railway traffic under Moving Block (MB). The formulated real-time traffic management model contains: i) a core module for the detection and the sub-optimal resolution of track occupation conflicts under MB and ii) a non-vital module for providing early-warning predictions of potentially hazardous MB traffic situations. The proposed real-time traffic management model includes a mathematical translation of requirements and constraints identified for both MB signalling within WP2 (namely deliverables D2.1 and D2.2) and the GNSS localisation and train integrity devices within WP3 (i.e. deliverables D3.1 – D3.3). An extensive literature review on real-time traffic management models and algorithms shows that so far research efforts have mainly focused on fixed-block and distance-to-go railway operations. Significant gaps still exist in the modelling of MB train operations, despite an increasing number of research works on MB signalling technology is observed since year 2003. A modelling gap analysis is here performed which indicates the need of enhancing existing real-time traffic management algorithms to better align them to the MB concept in terms of infrastructure representation and speed-headway functional dependency. To this end, the RECIFE-MILP real-time traffic management algorithm is enhanced. On one hand a finer infrastructure discretisation is implemented to offer a more suitable track representation under moving block which no longer uses fixed block sections. On the other hand, two different speed levels (namely maximum speed and scheduled speed) are introduced enabling a speed-dependent headway computation in either nominal or delayed traffic scenarios, thereby overcoming the limitation of speed-independent headways, typical of fixed-block traffic rescheduling models. A non-vital early-warning prediction model of hazardous MB traffic conditions is also proposed which includes a short- and a medium-term hazard identification method. In the short-term, potentially hazardous MB traffic condition are identified as violations of safety-critical threshold values of design variables relating to MB train operations (e.g. driving reaction times), the GNSS system (e.g. GNSS error or latency) and/or the GSM-R layer (e.g. MA communication delay). Safety-critical thresholds of the different design variables are identified by means of an extensive sensitivity analysis which uses a Stochastic Activity Network built for MB within WP2. In the medium-term warnings of potentially hazardous MB conditions are instead triggered whenever RECIFE-MILP detects track occupation conflicts in geographical areas with limited GNSS and/ or GSM-R signal availability, such as deep valleys or tunnels. The defined models contribute to the definition of an optimised automated Traffic Management System for Moving Block which can also support traffic dispatchers in preventively avoiding the occurrence of potentially dangerous MB traffic conditions.