The Red River Delta in Vietnam is a critical socio-economic region that is undergoing rapid environmental changes. Over the last few decades, the system has become increasingly affected by human activities. In the future, these anthropogenic effects will likely exacerbate risks a
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The Red River Delta in Vietnam is a critical socio-economic region that is undergoing rapid environmental changes. Over the last few decades, the system has become increasingly affected by human activities. In the future, these anthropogenic effects will likely exacerbate risks associated with long-term climate change. Despite the importance of these anthropogenic disturbances, existing system-wide studies of the delta rely on outdated data or focus on a single river distributary or effect (such as river deepening, saline water intrusion, or changes in discharge). This thesis aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated analysis of hydrological trends and river-tide dynamics using a long-term observational dataset from 1990 to 2024. Mann-Kendall statistical tests are used to identify significant trends, a harmonic analysis and Godin filter separate tidal signals from river flow, and a linearized dispersion relation is used to estimate changes in riverbed levels.
The results reveal riverbed incision across all distributaries covered in the analysis, with the most severe lowering occurring in the upper delta. Because of this deepening, dry-season water levels at upstream locations such as Hanoi, Thuong Cat, and Son Tay have lowered by 3 to 5 meters. The lowering of the riverbed has significantly reduced bottom friction, allowing the tidal wave to travel faster and reach further inland under a milder hydraulic gradient. For example, the tidal travel time of the diurnal K1 tidal wave to Hung Yen, approximately 120 km inland, has decreased by about two hours. Riverbed incision, together with decreasing discharge resulting from upstream dams, has caused a tidal range of nearly 1 m to emerge in recent years as far upstream as Son Tay (~200 km inland). Furthermore, unequal riverbed incision and tidal dynamics have reversed previous trends at the primary bifurcation near Hanoi, shifting dry-season discharge distribution back toward the main Red River distributary.
Upstream tidal amplification and the resulting increase in tidal prism may strengthen saline water intrusion, potentially threatening freshwater availability in the delta. The observed trends reveal that local human activities such as discharge regulation, sediment trapping, and intensive sand mining result in changes of an order of magnitude larger than present-day climate change, such as sea level rise and precipitation changes. These local anthropogenic interventions lowered riverbed elevations and flattened the hydraulic gradient, allowing future sea level rise effects to reach further upstream. These human interventions will likely continue to influence the hydrodynamics (water levels, discharge, salinity) in the delta for at least the coming decades, climate adaptation strategies should therefore acknowledge and account for how anthropogenic drivers can amplify future climate vulnerabilities.