Due to the unavailability of prototypes, the early adopters of novel products actively seek information from multiple sources (e.g., media and social networks) to minimize the potential risk. The existing behavior models not only fail to capture the information propagation within the individual's social network, but also they do not incorporate the impact of such word-of-mouth (WOM) dissemination on the consumer's risk preferences. Moreover, even cutting-edge forecasting models rely on crude/synthetic consumer behavior models. We propose a general framework to forecast the adoption of novel products by developing a new consumer behavior model and integrating it into a population-level agent-based model. Specifically, we extend the hybrid choice model to estimate consumer behavior, which incorporates social network effects and interplay between WOM and risk aversion. The calibrated consumer behavior model and synthetic population are passed through the agent-based model for forecasting the product market share. We apply the proposed framework to forecast the adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in Nashville, USA. The consumer behavior model is calibrated with a stated preference survey data of 1,495 Nashville residents. The output of the agent-based model provides the effect of the purchase price, post-purchase satisfaction, and safety measures/regulations on the forecasted AV market share. With an annual AV price reduction of 5% at the initial purchase price of $60,000 and 90% of satisfied adopters, AVs are forecasted to attain around 80% market share in thirty-one years. These findings are crucial for policymakers to develop infrastructure plans and manufacturers to conduct an after-sales cost-benefit analysis.@en

The potential lack of realism in stated-preference surveys is particularly acute in contexts where disaggregate real-world data is challenging to obtain. Mobility-on-Demand (MOD) services present one such context. The MOD context is unique due to factors such as service reliability (difference in stated vs. actual travel and waiting time) and current mode inertia which affect the choice of MOD services and are difficult to infer from revealed preference data. Further, travel mode choices are repetitive and constitute a relatively easy choice situation. Consequently, individuals may utilize simple non-compensatory strategies. In this study, we design a survey to mimic real-world choice sets using a joint revealed and stated- (RP-SP) preference survey approach. We construct the complete journey of individuals taking into account departure time, access and egress mode, current primary mode and origin–destination pair. A Choquet Integral (CI)-based choice model with endogeneity correction is employed, thereby allowing to approximate non-compensatory behaviour. Results confirm the presence of non-compensatory behaviour across all mode users (car, public transport and bike). Reliability and inertia effects are most pronounced for car users including the potential for a combined departure time-mode shift towards MOD. Owing to non-compensatory behaviour and inertia, higher travel costs cannot be fully compensated by shorter waiting and travel times and a differential pricing strategy may be required to increase MOD market share. Failure to account for common unobserved factors between the RP and SP choices results in inflated attribute importance.@en

Understanding economic decision-making is essential for impactful policy design. In the literature, two main modelling paradigms exist: compensatory and non-compensatory. In this work, we advance the field of decision theory by developing a flexible choice model capable of approximating two modelling paradigms without imposing any a-priori assumptions. Furthermore, through the use of the proposed model, we empirically identify the decision strategy involved in the choice of Mobility-on-demand (MoD) services. Finally, independent of the modelling paradigm, we propose and empirically validate a framework to model the effect of interpersonal network on choice behaviour. @en

Several non-linear functions and machine learning methods have been developed for flexible specification of the systematic utility in discrete choice models. However, they lack interpretability, do not ensure monotonicity conditions, and restrict substitution patterns. We address the first two challenges by modeling the systematic utility using the Choquet Integral (CI) function and the last one by embedding CI into the multinomial probit (MNP) choice probability kernel. We also extend the MNP-CI model to account for attribute cut-offs that enable a modeler to approximately mimic the semi-compensatory behavior using the traditional choice experiment data. The MNP-CI model is estimated using a constrained maximum likelihood approach, and its statistical properties are validated through a comprehensive Monte Carlo study. The CI-based choice model is empirically advantageous as it captures interaction effects while maintaining monotonicity. It also provides information on the complementarity between pairs of attributes coupled with their importance ranking as a by-product of the estimation. These insights could potentially assist policymakers in making policies to improve the preference level for an alternative. These advantages of the MNP-CI model with attribute cut-offs are illustrated in an empirical application to understand New Yorkers’ preferences towards mobility-on-demand services.@en

Consumer preference elicitation is critical to devise effective policies for the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) in India. This study contributes to the EV demand literature in the Indian context by (a) analysing the EV attributes and attitudinal factors of Indian car buyers that determine consumers' preferences for EVs, (b) estimating Indian consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) to buy EVs with improved attributes, and c) quantifying how the reference dependence affects the WTP estimates. We adopt a hybrid choice modelling approach for this study. The results indicate that accounting for reference dependence provides more realistic WTP estimates than the standard utility estimation approach. Our results suggest that Indian consumers are willing to pay an additional US$10–34 in the purchase price to reduce the fast charging time by 1 min, US$7–40 to add a kilometre to the driving range of EVs at 200 km, and US$104–692 to save US$1 per 100 km in operating cost. These estimates and the effect of attitudes on the likelihood to adopt EVs provide insights about EV design, marketing strategies, and pro-EV policies (e.g., specialised lanes and reserved parking for EVs) to expedite the adoption of EVs in India.@en

Consumer preference elicitation is critical to devise effective policies for the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) in India. This study contributes to the EV demand literature in the Indian context by (a) analysing the EV attributes and attitudinal factors of Indian car buyers that determine consumers' preferences for EVs, (b) estimating Indian consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) to buy EVs with improved attributes, and c) quantifying how the reference dependence affects the WTP estimates. We adopt a hybrid choice modelling approach for this study. The results indicate that accounting for reference dependence provides more realistic WTP estimates than the standard utility estimation approach. Our results suggest that Indian consumers are willing to pay an additional US$10–34 in the purchase price to reduce the fast charging time by 1 min, US$7–40 to add a kilometre to the driving range of EVs at 200 km, and US$104–692 to save US$1 per 100 km in operating cost. These estimates and the effect of attitudes on the likelihood to adopt EVs provide insights about EV design, marketing strategies, and pro-EV policies (e.g., specialised lanes and reserved parking for EVs) to expedite the adoption of EVs in India.@en

Previous economics literature has explored the role of visual attention on choice in isolation without accounting for other influences such as habits and goals or learning effects, nor their interrelationship. In this paper, we: (i) develop a novel joint framework to explore the relationship between visual attention, observed heterogeneity from stated habits and goals, and choice outcomes while accounting for shorter- and longer-term learning effects; and (ii) investigate whether accounting for these relationships improves model predictive power and behavioral insights. The empirical analysis used an eye-tracked discrete choice experiment on sugar-sweetened beverage purchasing (n = 152 adults with 20 choice tasks). Results suggest that habits, goals, and shorter-term learning are key drivers of information acquisition whereas cumulative choices (longer-term learning) affect subsequent choice outcome. Importantly, ignoring the joint relationship between habits, visual attention and choice may exaggerate the role of visual attention, leading to incorrect behavioral insights and reduced prediction accuracy.@en

Previous economics literature has explored the role of visual attention on choice in isolation without accounting for other influences such as habits and goals or learning effects, nor their interrelationship. In this paper, we: (i) develop a novel joint framework to explore the relationship between visual attention, observed heterogeneity from stated habits and goals, and choice outcomes while accounting for shorter- and longer-term learning effects; and (ii) investigate whether accounting for these relationships improves model predictive power and behavioral insights. The empirical analysis used an eye-tracked discrete choice experiment on sugar-sweetened beverage purchasing (n = 152 adults with 20 choice tasks). Results suggest that habits, goals, and shorter-term learning are key drivers of information acquisition whereas cumulative choices (longer-term learning) affect subsequent choice outcome. Importantly, ignoring the joint relationship between habits, visual attention and choice may exaggerate the role of visual attention, leading to incorrect behavioral insights and reduced prediction accuracy.@en

Previous economics literature has explored the role of visual attention on choice in isolation without accounting for other influences such as habits and goals or learning effects, nor their interrelationship. In this paper, we: (i) develop a novel joint framework to explore the relationship between visual attention, observed heterogeneity from stated habits and goals, and choice outcomes while accounting for shorter- and longer-term learning effects; and (ii) investigate whether accounting for these relationships improves model predictive power and behavioral insights. The empirical analysis used an eye-tracked discrete choice experiment on sugar-sweetened beverage purchasing (n = 152 adults with 20 choice tasks). Results suggest that habits, goals, and shorter-term learning are key drivers of information acquisition whereas cumulative choices (longer-term learning) affect subsequent choice outcome. Importantly, ignoring the joint relationship between habits, visual attention and choice may exaggerate the role of visual attention, leading to incorrect behavioral insights and reduced prediction accuracy.@en

In multinomial response models, idiosyncratic variations in the indirect utility are generally modeled using Gumbel or normal distributions. This study makes a strong case to substitute these thin-tailed distributions with a t-distribution. First, we demonstrate that a model with a t-distributed error kernel better estimates and predicts preferences, especially in class-imbalanced datasets. Our proposed specification also implicitly accounts for decision-uncertainty behavior, i.e. the degree of certainty that decision-makers hold in their choices relative to the variation in the indirect utility of any alternative. Second – after applying a t-distributed error kernel in a multinomial response model for the first time – we extend this specification to a generalized continuous-multinomial (GCM) model and derive its full-information maximum likelihood estimation procedure. The likelihood involves an open-form expression of the cumulative density function of the multivariate t-distribution, which we propose to compute using a combination of the composite marginal likelihood method and the separation-of-variables approach. Third, we establish finite sample properties of the GCM model with a t-distributed error kernel (GCM-t) and highlight its superiority over the GCM model with a normally-distributed error kernel (GCM-N) in a Monte Carlo study. Finally, we compare GCM-t and GCM-N in an empirical setting related to preferences for electric vehicles (EVs). We observe that accounting for decision-uncertainty behavior in GCM-t results in lower elasticity estimates and a higher willingness to pay for improving the EV attributes than those of the GCM-N model. These differences are relevant in making policies to expedite the adoption of EVs.@en