The introduction of automated vehicles (AVs)is a virtual certainty. Much less certain is the timing of their introduction and how rapid the transition to full automation will be. Various governments are already working to facilitate this shift by, for example, amending and elaborating regulations to support the introduction of AVs, or supporting tests in different urban environments. Meanwhile, urban and regional planners and decision-makers are still grappling with the uncertainties and differing opinions about the possible impacts of AVs on land-use changes and location choices, particularly in relation to the space available for vehicles, both moving (i.e. roadspace)and stationary (i.e. parking space). This paper uses a backcasting approach to identify critical policy decisions and measures to be taken before the implementation of AVs, so as to achieve a more desirable, attractive and high-quality city. These policy measures primarily relate to the reuse and reallocation of parking and roadspace. Two strategic decisions are found to be essential to meet the major goals of sustainable and liveable cities: a clear commitment to a shared mobility and the delimitation of Core Attractive Mixed-use Spaces (CAMS). In order to deliver these desired urbanisation patterns, a set of three policy paths, involving eight policy packages, is proposed for the next 20–30 years. This article provides urban and regional decision-makers with examples of interventions that can be implemented beyond and during the implementation of AVs.@en

The introduction of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) into cities may fundamentally transform the design and use of cities. On one hand, AVs offer the potential to reduce the urban space requirements for roads and parking, creating more space for high-quality, liveable areas. On the other hand, greater motorisation and the availability to perform leisure or work activities while travelling in AVs could increase the number of trips and travel distances, encouraging urban traffic congestion and sprawl. These diverse, and sometimes conflicting, estimates and opinions give rise to considerable uncertainty among urban policy decision-makers, sometimes leading to planning inaction. This paper aims to shed light on the opportunities that AVs offer in delivering attractive, healthy and sustainable urbanisation patterns. This paper employs a backcasting approach to investigate whether and how the potential impacts of AV implementation can support or threaten a range of urban development policy goals. This approach enables conflicts between policy goals to be identified. The findings point to the need for mixed-use development policy, the clustering of urban facilities and services, the restriction of motorized access in cities and the adoption of shared high-quality multimodal transport.@en

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) can potentially bring about major changes in cities. Anticipatory planning approaches may provide valuable opportunities for fostering desirable transitions and pre-empting undesirable impacts. This research employs a combination of two methods to define the key policies to support a transition to the desirable driverless urban futures: the backcasting approach and the participatory Q-method. The combination of these techniques aims to identify different viewpoints about policies with the purpose of determining more effective and more acceptable options. The article analyses viewpoints from 20 citizens and 10 experts. The results point to the existence of two main viewpoints about the most and least desirable policies. The first viewpoint centres around increasing pedestrian mobility and promoting a more compact city. The second viewpoint centres around expanding transit-oriented development (TOD) and new networks of green spaces. Meanwhile, support for regulation-oriented policies to discourage the use of private motorised vehicles was relatively low. This research not only sheds light on the different viewpoints on the policies to achieve more desirable urban visions, it also illustrates the tensions and disagreements that may arise in the process of policy-making.@en

Despite the expected future introduction of autonomous vehicles in cities, very few studies have analysed the needs and challenges facing urban planning. This paper employs a combination of backcasting and Q-methodology to carry out participatory visioning for a future driverless city. This novel approach was used to elaborate shared visions of the desirable city among a group of 20 citizens and 10 practitioners. Views on 41 statements were analysed relating to urban design, society, environment, transport and mobility needs. Three main visions were identified. The first focuses on high-quality urban spaces and active mobility. The second vision is more futuristic and pro-social, consistent with the more imaginative and innovative stance of young people. The third vision is more conventional and closer to business-as-usual. The results suggest that there is some agreement on the future conditions and policies, especially on the need for environmentally friendly urban development and safe urban design. The article is premised on the belief that engaging stakeholders from different backgrounds, including citizens of various ages, can be enriching for urban planning since there is a wide variety of heterogeneous preferences across society. This requires a search for common ground when designing policy measures that satisfy multiple interests.@en