Emergency management and long-term planning in coastal areas depend on detailed assessments (meter scale) of flood and erosion risks. Typically, models of the risk chain are fragmented into smaller parts, because the physical processes involved are very complex and consequences can be diverse. We developed a Bayesian network (BN) approach to integrate the separate models. An important contribution is the learning algorithm for the BN. As input data, we used hindcast and synthetic extreme event scenarios, information on land use and vulnerability relationships (e.g., depth-damage curves). As part of the RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts toolKIT) project, we successfully tested the approach and algorithm in a range of morphological settings. We also showed that it is possible to include hazards from different origins, such as marine and riverine sources. In this article, we describe the application to the town of Wells-next-the-Sea, Norfolk, UK, which is vulnerable to storm surges. For any storm input scenario, the BN estimated the percentage of affected receptors in different zones of the site by predicting their hazards and damages. As receptor types, we considered people, residential and commercial properties, and a saltmarsh ecosystem. Additionally, the BN displays the outcome of different disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures. Because the model integrates the entire risk chain with DRR measures and predicts in real-time, it is useful for decision support in risk management of coastal areas.

Vegetation-wave interactions are critical in determining the capacity of coastal salt marshes to reduce wave energy (wave dissipation), enhance sedimentation and protect the shoreline from erosion. While vegetation-induced wave dissipation is increasingly recognized in low wave energy environments, little is known about: (i) the effect of vegetation on wave dissipation during storms when wave heights and water levels are highest; and (ii) the ability of different plant species to dissipate waves and to maintain their integrity under storm surge conditions. Experiments undertaken in one of the world's largest wave flumes allowed, for the first time, the study of vegetation-wave interactions at near-field scale, under wave heights ranging from 0.1–0.9 m (corresponding to orbital velocities of 2–91 cm s⁻¹) and water depths up to 2 m, in canopies of two typical NW European salt marsh grasses: Puccinellia maritima (Puccinellia) and Elymus athericus (Elymus). Results indicate that plant flexibility and height, as well as wave conditions and water depth, play an important role in determining how salt marsh vegetation interacts with waves. Under medium conditions (orbital velocity 42–63 cm s⁻¹), the effect of Puccinellia and Elymus on wave orbital velocities varied with water depth and wave period. Under high water levels (2 m) and long wave periods (4.1 s), within the flexible, low-growing Puccinellia canopy orbital velocity was reduced by 35% while in the more rigid, tall Elymus canopy deflection and folding of stems occurred and no significant effect on orbital velocity was found. Under low water levels (1 m) and short wave periods (2.9 s) by contrast, Elymus reduced near-bed velocity more than Puccinellia. Under high orbital velocities (≥74 cm s⁻¹), flattening of the canopy and an increase of orbital velocity was observed for both Puccinellia and Elymus. Stem folding and breakage in Elymus at a threshold orbital velocity ≥ 42 cm s⁻¹ coincided with a levelling-off in the marsh wave dissipation capacity, while Puccinellia survived even extreme wave forces without physical damage. These findings suggest a species-specific control of wave dissipation by salt marshes which can potentially inform predictions of the wave dissipation capacity of marshes and their resilience to storm surge conditions.

A full-scale controlled experiment was conducted on an excavated and re-assembled coastal wetland surface, typical of floristically diverse northwest European saltmarsh. The experiment was undertaken with true-to-scale water depths and waves in a large wave flume, in order to assess the impact of storm surge conditions on marsh surface soils, initially with three different plant species and then when this marsh canopy had been mowed. The data presented suggests a high bio-geomorphological resilience of salt marshes to vertical sediment removal, with less than 0.6cm average vertical lowering in response to a sequence of simulated storm surge conditions. Both organic matter content and plant species exerted an important influence on both the variability and degree of soil surface stability, with surfaces covered by a flattened canopy of the salt marsh grass Puccinellia experiencing a lower and less variable elevation loss than those characterized by Elymus or Atriplex that exhibited considerable physical damage through stem folding and breakage.

Moving water exerts drag forces on vegetation. The susceptibility of vegetation to bending and breakage determines its flow resistance, and chances of survival, under hydrodynamic loading. To evaluate the role of individual vegetation parameters in this water-vegetation interaction, we conducted drag force measurements under a wide range of wave loadings in a large wave flume. Artificial vegetation elements were used to manipulate stiffness, frontal area in still water and material volume as a proxy for biomass. The aim was to compare: (i) identical volume but different still frontal area, (ii) identical stiffness but different still frontal area, and (iii) identical still frontal area but different volume. Comparison of mimic arrangements showed that stiffness and the dynamic frontal area (i.e., frontal area resulting from bending which depends on stiffness and hydrodynamic forcing) determine drag forces. Only at low orbital-flow velocities did the still frontal area dominate the force-velocity relationship and it is hypothesised that no mimic bending took place under these conditions. Mimic arrangements with identical stiffness but different overall material volume and still frontal area showed that forces do not increase linearly with increasing material volume and it is proposed that short distances between mimics cause their interaction and result in additional drag forces. A model, based on effective leaf length and characteristic plant width developed for unidirectional flow, performed well for the force time series under both regular and irregular waves. However, its uncertainty increased with increasing interaction of neighbouring mimics.

Coastal communities around the world face an increasing risk from flooding as a result of rising sea level, increasing storminess and land subsidence¹². Salt marshes can act as natural buffer zones, providing protection from waves during storms³⁷. However, the effectiveness of marshes in protecting the coastline during extreme events when water levels are at a maximum and waves are highest is poorly understood^8,9. Here we experimentally assess wave dissipation under storm surge conditions in a 300-metre-long wave flume tank that contains a transplanted section of natural salt marsh. We find that the presence of marsh vegetation causes considerable wave attenuation, even when water levels and waves are highest. From a comparison with experiments without vegetation, we estimate that up to 60% of observed wave reduction is attributed to vegetation. We also find that although waves progressively flatten and break vegetation stems and thereby reduce dissipation, the marsh substrate remained stable and resistant to surface erosion under all conditions. The effectiveness of storm wave dissipation and the resilience of tidal marshes even at extreme conditions suggest that salt marsh ecosystems can be a valuable component of coastal protection schemes.

The conservation of coastal ecosystems can provide considerable coastal protection benefits, but this role has not been sufficiently accounted for in coastal planning and engineering. Substantial evidence now exists showing how, and under what conditions, ecosystems can play a valuable function in wave and storm surge attenuation, erosion reduction, and in the longer term maintenance of the coastal profile. Both through their capacity for self repair and recovery, and through the often considerable cobenefits they provide, ecosystems can offer notable advantages over traditional engineering approaches in some settings. They can also be combined in "hybrid" engineering designs. We make 10 recommendations to encourage the utilization of existing knowledge and to improve the incorporation of ecosystems into policy, planning and funding for coastal hazard risk reduction.