Learning curves depict how a model’s expected performance changes with varying training set sizes, unlike training curves, showing a gradient-based model’s performance with respect to training epochs. Extrapolating learning curves can be useful for determining the performance gain with additional data. Parametric functions, that assume monotone behaviour of the curves, are a prevalent methodology to model and extrapolate learning curves. However, learning curves do not necessarily follow a specific parametric shape: they can have peaks, dips, and zigzag patterns. These unconventional shapes can hinder the extrapolation performance of commonly used parametric curve-fitting models. In addition, the objective functions for fitting such parametric models are non-convex, making them initialization-dependent and brittle. In response to these challenges, we propose a convex, data-driven approach that extracts information from available learning curves to guide the extrapolation of another targeted learning curve. Our method achieves this through using a learning curve database. Using the initial segment of the observed curve, we determine a group of similar curves from the database and reduce the dimensionality via Functional Principle Component Analysis FPCA. These principal components are used in a semi-parametric kernel ridge regression (SPKR) model to extrapolate targeted curves. The solution of the SPKR can be obtained analytically and does not suffer from initialization issues. To evaluate our method, we create a new database of diverse learning curves that do not always adhere to typical parametric shapes. Our method performs better than parametric non-parametric learning curve-fitting methods on this database for the learning curve extrapolation task.

Data-driven modeling in mechanics is evolving rapidly based on recent machine learning advances, especially on artificial neural networks. As the field matures, new data and models created by different groups become available, opening possibilities for cooperative modeling. However, artificial neural networks suffer from catastrophic forgetting, i.e. they forget how to perform an old task when trained on a new one. This hinders cooperation because adapting an existing model for a new task affects the performance on a previous task trained by someone else. The authors developed a continual learning method that addresses this issue, applying it here for the first time to solid mechanics. In particular, the method is applied to recurrent neural networks to predict history-dependent plasticity behavior, although it can be used on any other architecture (feedforward, convolutional, etc.) and to predict other phenomena. This work intends to spawn future developments on continual learning that will foster cooperative strategies among the mechanics community to solve increasingly challenging problems. We show that the chosen continual learning strategy can sequentially learn several constitutive laws without forgetting them, using less data to achieve the same error as standard (non-cooperative) training of one law per model.