A pursuit-tracking manual control model is introduced that includes an observer-like internal model to predict human detection of a change in controlled element dynamics. The internal model’s innovation signal, the difference between the observed and expected system response, is studied for its capacity to drive the detection of a change. The model’s performance is tested for different crossover frequencies, remnant power ratios, observer gains, and detection threshold settings, through Monte Carlo analysis of simulated pursuit-tracking tasks where the controlled element transitions from single to double integrator dynamics. The model shows highly accurate detection performance for a wide range in the observer gain, with a true positive rate of approximately 1 and a false positive rate of approximately 0.02. The high true and low false positive rates, combined with average detection times that match experimental human-in-the-loop data, show the observer model’s potential for accurately predicting human detection of a change in controlled element dynamics. ... Read more