Leonardus van Kampenhout | TU Delft Repository

Brief communication

CESM2 climate forcing (1950-2014) yields realistic Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance

Journal article (2020) - Brice Noël, Leonardus Van Kampenhout, Willem Jan Van De Berg, Jan T.M. Lenaerts, Bert Wouters, Michiel R. Van Den Broeke

We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ∼ 11 km) to dynamically downscale the climate of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; ∼ 111 km). After further statistical downscaling to 1 km spatial resolution, evaluation using in situ SMB measurements and remotely sensed GrIS mass change shows good agreement. Comparison with an ensemble of previously conducted RACMO2 simulations forced by climate reanalysis demonstrates that the current product realistically represents the long-term average and variability of individual SMB components and captures the recent increase in meltwater runoff that accelerated GrIS mass loss. This means that, for the first time, climate forcing from an Earth system model (CESM2), which assimilates no observations, can be used without additional corrections to reconstruct the historical GrIS SMB and its recent decline that initiated mass loss in the 1990s. This paves the way for attribution studies of future GrIS mass loss projections and contribution to sea level rise.
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Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Journal article (2020) - Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Alan Robock, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo Van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ĝC above 1850-1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30ĝ N, 15ĝ N, 15ĝ S, and 30ĝ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-To-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ĝC vs. 2.0 ĝC). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems. ...

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ĝC above 1850-1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30ĝ N, 15ĝ N, 15ĝ S, and 30ĝ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-To-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ĝC vs. 2.0 ĝC). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

Present-Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

Journal article (2020) - Leonardus van Kampenhout, Jan T.M. Lenaerts, William H. Lipscomb, Stef Lhermitte, Brice Noël, Miren Vizcaino, W. J. Sacks, Michiel R. van den Broeke

The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to a warmer climate is uncertain on long time scales. Climate models, such as those participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), are used to assess this uncertainty. The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2) is a CMIP6 model capable of running climate simulations with either one-way coupling (fixed ice sheet geometry) or two-way coupling (dynamic geometry) to the GrIS. The model features prognostic snow albedo, online downscaling using elevation classes, and a firn pack to refreeze percolating melt water. Here we evaluate the representation of the GrIS surface energy balance and surface mass balance in CESM2 at 1° resolution with fixed GrIS geometry. CESM2 agrees closely with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for key controls on GrIS SMB: surface pressure, sea ice extent, 500 hPa geopotential height, wind speed, and 700 hPa air temperature. Cloudsat-CALIPSO data show that supercooled liquid-containing clouds are adequately represented, whereas comparisons to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and CM SAF Cloud, Albedo, and Surface Radiation data set from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data second edition data suggest that CESM2 underestimates surface albedo. The seasonal cycle and spatial patterns of surface energy balance and surface mass balance components in CESM2 agree well with regional climate model RACMO2.3p2, with GrIS-integrated melt, refreezing, and runoff bracketed by RACMO2 counterparts at 11 and 1 km. Time series of melt, runoff, and SMB show a break point around 1990, similar to RACMO2. These results suggest that GrIS SMB is realistic in CESM2, which adds confidence to coupled ice sheet-climate experiments that aim to assess the GrIS contribution to future sea level rise. ...

Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model

Application to the Greenland ice sheet

Journal article (2019) - Raymond Sellevold, Leonardus Van Kampenhout, Jan T.M. Lenaerts, Brice Noël, William H. Lipscomb, Miren Vizcaino

The modeling of ice sheets in Earth system models (ESMs) is an active area of research with applications to future sea level rise projections and paleoclimate studies. A major challenge for surface mass balance (SMB) modeling with ESMs arises from their coarse resolution. This paper evaluates the elevation class (EC) method as an SMB downscaling alternative to the dynamical downscaling of regional climate models. To this end, we compare EC-simulated elevation-dependent surface energy and mass balance gradients from the Community Earth System Model 1.0 (CESM1.0) with those from the regional climate model RACMO2.3. The EC implementation in CESM1.0 combines prognostic snow albedo, a multilayer snow model, and elevation corrections for two atmospheric forcing variables: temperature and humidity. Despite making no corrections for incoming radiation and precipitation, we find that the EC method in CESM1.0 yields similar SMB gradients to RACMO2.3, in part due to compensating biases in snowfall, surface melt, and refreezing gradients. We discuss the sensitivity of the results to the lapse rate used for the temperature correction. We also evaluate the impact of the EC method on the climate simulated by the ESM and find minor cooling over the Greenland ice sheet and Barents and Greenland seas, which compensates for a warm bias in the ESM due to topographic smoothing. Based on our diagnostic procedure to evaluate the EC method, we make several recommendations for future implementations. ...

Evaluating and improving ice sheet clouds, radiation, and precipitation in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract (2018) - Jan Lenaerts, Michael D. Camron, Jennifer E. Kay, Leo van Kampenhout, Andrew Gettelman, Tristan L'Ecuyer, Niels Souverijns, Maaike Izeboud, Stef Lhermitte, More authors...

Clouds exert a pivotal control on the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet and therefore their contribution to global sea level. Clouds transport moisture onto the marginal ice sheet, where steep topographic gradients force the air to rise and cool, inducing strong orographic precipitation and leaving the interior ice sheet dry (polar desert). Clouds further regulate the radiation balance at the surface and, consequently, surface melt. Depending on their frequency, phase, and structure, clouds not only mute incoming solar radiation but also enhance longwave radiation at the surface. With the advent of novel observations from space (CloudSat-CALIPSO) and in the field, we now have tools to start evaluating the representation of clouds, precipitation, and ice sheet surface radiation in climate models. Here we evaluate the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1(CAM5)) to represent (1) precipitation frequency and phase, using a CALIPSO cloud simulator; (2) cloud radiative effect comparing to a CloudSat-CALIPSO based product; and (3) snowfall amounts and surface mass balance, comparing to CloudSat, in-situ observations, and regional climate model results. After discussing outstanding cloud biases in CESM1(CAM5), we present our efforts to reduce these in the recently released version 2 (CESM2). We show that clouds are considerably better represented in CESM2, leading to improvements in surface radiation, melt, and surface mass balance, although biases in precipitation phase persist. Our work demonstrates the need for high-quality, long-term observations of clouds and their effect on the ice sheet surface to enable continued climate model improvement. ...

Modeling the Greenland ice sheet within the Community Earth System Model

Abstract (2018) - Miren Vizcaino, Laura Muntjewerf, Sarah Bradley, Michele Petrini, Jeremy Fyke, William Lipscomb, Leo van Kampenhout, Jan T M Lenaerts, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Raymond Sellevold, William Sacks

Ice sheets are a major component of the Earth System, however they are not yet interactively coupled to most global climate models. Here we present past achievements in this front with the CESM1.0 version as well as first results and challenges with the upcoming CESM2.0, where the Community Ice Sheet Model 2.1 is bi-directionally coupled to the atmospheric and ocean components, as opposed to only one-way coupling in CESM1.0. In both CESM versions, the surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated in the land component (CLM) with explicit albedo and refreezing calculations, and downscaled to the ice sheet model resolution via elevation classes and bi-linear (horizontal) and linear (vertical) interpolations. A major highlight of CESM is that the most important coupling process between ice sheet and atmosphere, the albedo feedback, is explicitly modeled, as opposed to state-of-the-art parameterizations of albedo and/or surface melt. Regarding future Greenland ice sheet projections with CESM1, we summarize our results on: 1) doubled end-of-the-century melt rates under RCP8.5 from increased incoming thermal radiation and turbulent fluxes despite decreased incoming solar radiation over Greenland from more clouds, 2) increase in SMB variability due to reduced accumulation to ablation area ration, 3) bimodal emergence of an anthropogenic signal on the SMB due to both increasing melt and snow accumulation, 4) reduction in ice discharge from marginal thinning. We also outline work in progress in preparation for our contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 6 (ISMIP6) and paleo-research on the last deglaciation, e.g., on model initialization, improved SMB calculation, evaluation of CESM2.0 climate over Greenland, and parameter optimization of the higher-order CISM2.1. ...

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

Journal article (2016) - Jan T M Lenaerts, Miren Vizcaino, Jeremy Fyke, Leo van Kampenhout, Michiel R. van den Broeke

We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ∼ 1 ^∘ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 Gtyear-1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear-1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content. ...