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M. Janic

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Journal article (2020) - Milan Janić
This paper deals with estimation of direct energy consumption and related emissions of GHG exclusively, including CO2, by the High Speed Rail (HSR), Trans Rapid Maglev (TRM), and Hyperloop (HL) passenger transport systems. This includes developing the corresponding analytical models based on the mechanical energy and applying them according to the specified what-if operating scenarios. The analogous models are developed and applied to the Air Passenger Transport (APT) system for comparison purposes. The results of the application of the proposed models under given conditions have indicated that the average and total energy consumption and related emission of CO2 of the three systems have been generally sensitive, i.e. elastic to variations of the nonstop journey distance and the vehicle/train seating capacity. Their average values have decreased more than proportionally and total values in proportion with increasing of the nonstop journey distance. Both have decreased with increasing of the vehicle/train seating capacity per departure. In the case of supplying equivalent equally utilized transport capacities, the HSR and the TRM have had lower energy consumption and related emission of CO2 than the HL system. As well, the HSR, the TRM, and the HL have had lower energy consumption and related CO2 emission than the selected APT aircraft up to some ‘breaking’ journey distance under given what-if operating scenarios. ...
Journal article (2020) - M. Janić
This paper deals with modelling the performance of an air transport network operated by existing subsonic and the prospective supersonic commercial aircraft. Analytical models of indicators of the infrastructural, technical/technological, operational, economic, environmental, and social performance of the network relevant for the main actors/stakeholders involved are developed. The models are applied to the given long-haul air route network exclusively operated by subsonic and supersonic aircraft according to the specified "what-if"scenarios.The results from application of the models indicate that supersonic flights powered by LH2 (Liquid Hydrogen) could be more feasible than their subsonic counterparts powered by Jet A fuel, in terms of about three times higher technical productivity, 46% smaller size of the required fleet given the frequency of a single flight per day, 20% lower sum of the aircraft/airline operational, air passenger time, and considered external costs, up to two times higher overall social-economic feasibility, and 94% greater savings in contribution to global warming and climate change. These flights could be less feasible in terms of about 70-85% higher aircraft/airline operational costs, 70% and 19% higher fuel consumption and emissions of Green House Gases, respectively, and 6-13% higher noise compared to the specified acceptable levels. ...

Analysis of historical freight shipping corridor data in the period 1662–1855

Journal article (2020) - Bart Wiegmans, Patrick Witte, Milan Janic, Tom de Jong
This paper examines the use of big data and data analytics in international transport networks from the perspective of historical big data, focusing on shipping logs from the British, Dutch, Spanish and French fleets in between 1662 and 1855. Based on a large-scale database containing mainly meteorological data collected in the CLIWOC project (2003), we computed travel distances and analyzed historical global maritime networks. This paper focuses on route choice, and consequently the time, distance, speed and reliability of the ships, covering different time periods, seasonal patterns and trade flows. The results reveal a clear picture of the main routes per nationality that is also indicative of the linguistical, cultural and economic colonial heritage that remains in the ‘host’ countries up to this day. The average daily distances covered vary over the countries involved, over the seasons and over different time periods. Also the trip characteristics vary notably over the different countries. Zooming in on the main trade flows, the corridor from the Netherlands to Indonesia stands out, but also considerable differences in average speed and stopover times were found along this route. Related to the complexity of using big data in studying international transport networks, our conclusion is that the degree of permutations and interactions with the dataset is not necessarily less for analyzing historical shipping records. It seems that big data of the past still can inspire future explorations of our historical transport networks on the world's oceans. ...
Journal article (2020) - Zoran Jakšić, Milan Janić
This paper develops a theoretical framework containing the methodology for assessing resilience of the ATC (Air Traffic Control) sectors affected by the impact of a given disruptive event. The resilience is considered as ability of these sectors to retain a certain level of the regular/nominal performance during the impact and fully recover relatively fast afterwards. The actually rear disruptive event is considered to be the large-scale failure of a component of the ATC facilities and equipment supporting safe, efficient, and effective air traffic. Under such conditions, different mitigating contingency measures are generally applied resulting in deteriorating the operational, economic, and environmental performance of the affected sectors while maintaining the required level of safety. This performance is represented by the indicators such as demand, capacity, traffic complexity, the ATC controller workload, aircraft/flight delays and their costs, and additional fuel consumption and related emissions of GHG (Green House Gases). The proposed methodology consists of the generic model of resilience, the analytical models for estimating the indictors of ATC sectors’ performance, and the analytical models of resilience based the indicators as figures-of-merit for assessing resilience. These models are based on the practice-close mitigating contingency measures applied to the ATC sectors affected by a given disruptive event. The possible application of the proposed methodology is also elaborated. ...
Journal article (2019) - Milan Janić
This paper presents modeling the resilience of an airline cargo transport network affected by a given (large scale) disruptive event. The airports represent the nodes and the air routes and flights between them the links of the network. Modeling implies synthesizing a methodology consisting of two sets of the analytical models: (a) a generic (existing) analytical model for assessing the resilience of particular airports, routes/links, and the entire network; and (b) the new analytical models of the selected indicators of the network's performance used as the FOMs (Figures-Of-Merit) for assessing the corresponding resilience. These indicators of performance include: (i) the airline flights; (ii) the airline transport work; (iii) the airline profits; (iv) the value of time of transported air cargo shipments; and (v) the inventory cost of air cargo shipments at the network nodes/airports. Such proposed methodology enabling assessment of the resilience of affected network over time, i.e., prior, during, and after the impact of a given disruptive event, has been applied to the real airline cargo network (FedEx Express, U.S.) affected by the large scale disruptive event (extreme snowstorm - the so-called nor'easter) characterized by its duration, intensity, and spatial scale. The results have indicated that the network's resilience has been affected differently regarding the particular indicators of performance as FOMs. It has been the least affected regarding ‘value of time’ and the most regarding ‘inventory cost’ of the air cargo shipments. ...
Journal article (2019) - Milan Janić
This paper presents a multidimensional examination of the infrastructural, technical/technological, operational, economic, environmental, social, and policy performance of the future advanced Evacuated Tube Transport (ETT) system operated by TransRapid Maglev (TRM) (the ETT-TRM system). The examination implies analyzing, modeling, and estimating selected performance criteria using the case of the Trans-Atlantic passenger transport market currently served exclusively by the Air Passenger Transport (APT) system. The purpose is to assess the ETT-TRM system’s competitive capabilities compared to those of the current and future APT system and consequently its potential contribution to mitigating impacts of both systems on society and the environment–the sustainability of the transport sector - under given conditions. ...
Journal article (2018) - Kees van Goeverden, Dimitris Milakis, Milan Janic, Rob Konings
Introduction: Hyperloop (HL) is presented as an efficient alternative of HSR (High Speed Rail) and APT (Air Passenger Transport) systems for long-distance passenger transport. This paper explores the performances of HL and compares these performances to HSR and APT. Methods: The following performances of the HL system are analytically modeled and compared to HSR and APT: (i) operational performance; (ii) financial performance; (iii) social/environmental performance. Results: The main operational result is that the capacity of HL is low which implies a low utilization of the infrastructure. Because the infrastructure costs dominate the total costs, the costs per passenger km are high compared to those for HSR and APT. The HL performs very well regarding the social/environmental aspects because of low energy use, no GHG emissions and hardly any noise. The safety performance needs further consideration. Conclusions: The HL system is promising for relieving the environmental pressure of long-distance travelling, but has disadvantages regarding the operational and financial performances. ...
Journal article (2018) - Milan Janić
This paper deals with modelling the dynamic resilience of rail passenger transport networks affected by large-scale disruptive events whose impacts deteriorate the networks’ planned infrastructural, operational, economic, and social-economic performances represented by the selected indicators. The indicators of infrastructural performances refer to the physical and operational conditions of the networks’ lines and stations, and supportive facilities and equipment. Those of the operational performances include transport services scheduled along particular routes, their seating capacity, and corresponding transport work/capacity. The indicators of economic performances include the costs of cancelled and long-delayed transport services imposed on the main actors/stakeholder involved—the rail operator(s) and users/passengers. The indicators of social-economic performances reflect the compromised accessibility and consequent prevention of the user/passenger trips and their contribution to the local/regional/national Gross Domestic Product. Modeling resulted in developing a methodology including two sets of analytical models for: (1) assessing the dynamic resilience of a given rail network, i.e., before, during, and after the impacts of disruptive event(s); and (2) estimation of the indicators of particular performances as the figures-of-merit for assessing the network’s resilience under the given conditions. As such, the methodology could be used for estimating the resilience of different topologies of rail passenger networks affected by past, current, and future disruptive events, the latest according to the “what-if” scenario approach and after introducing the appropriate assumptions. The methodology has been applied to a past case—the Japanese Shinkansen HSR network affected by a large-scale disruptive event—the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011. ...
Journal article (2018) - Milan Janic
This paper deals multidimensional examination of performances of a trunk line/route of liner container-shipping network serving an intercontinental supply chain by the conventional (Panamax Max) and mega (ULC - Ultra Large Container) ships. The trunk line/route of the network includes the supplier and the customer seaport of freight shipments consolidated into containers (TEU (Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit)), and the container ships operated by liner shipping carriers and/or their alliances providing transport services between them. The supplier and the customer seaport can be either the main seaports of the line or the hubs of the H&S (Hub-and-Spoke) network of particular liner container-shipping carriers. The multidimensional examination implies defining and developing the analytical models of indicators of the trunk line’s infrastructural, technical/technological, operational, economic, environmental, and social performances and their application to the selected real-life case. The infrastructural performances relate to the characteristics of infrastructure (berths) and container terminals in the seaports at both ends of theline. The technical/technological performances reflect the characteristics of facilities and equipment for loading/unloading and storing TEU shipments in these terminals, and that of the container ships transporting them. The operational performances include the transport service frequency, size, transport work and technical productivity of the deployed container ship fleet while serving a given volume of TEU flows during the specified time. The economic performances contain the inventory, handling, transport, and external costs of handling the TEU flows. The environmental performances relateto the fuel consumption and consequent emissions of GHG (Green House Gases). Finally, the social performances in terms of impacts generally refer to noise, congestion, and safety. The models of indicators of performances have been applied to the liner container shipping trunk line/route connecting the East Asia and North Europe operated exclusively by two above-mentioned categories of ships according to the “what-if” scenario approach. The results have indicated the very high sensitivity of all considered indicators of performances to the category of deployed ships under given conditions.As well, they have shown to be dependent on each other – the operational on the technical/technological, and the economic, environmental, and social on the technical/technological and operational. ...
Journal article (2018) - Milan Janic
This paper presents the multicriteria evaluation of the High Speed Rail (HSR),
TransRapid Maglev (TRM) and Hyperloop (HL) passenger transport system assumed to operate as the mutually exclusive alternatives along the given line/corridor. For such a purpose the methodology is synthesized consisting of the analytical models of indicators of performances of these systems used as the evaluation criteria and the multicriteria Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method. Given the characteristics of infrastructure and rolling stock/fleet of vhicles/trains reflecting the systems’ infrastructural and technical/technological performances, the indicators of operational, economic, environmental, and social performances are defined and modelled respecting the interests and preferences of the particular actors/stakeholders involved. These are
users/passengers, the systems’ transport operators, local, regional, and national authorities and investors, and community members. The proposed methodology is applied to the line/corridor Moscow – St. Petersburg (Russia) by assuming that three HS systems exclusively operate there according to “what-if’ scenario approach. The results indicate that, under given conditions, the HL is the preferable compared to the TRM and HSR alternative. ...
Journal article (2018) - Bart Wiegmans, Milan Janic
This article deals with an analysis, modeling, and assessing performances of supply chains served by long-distance intercontinental intermodal rail/road- and sea-shipping freight transport corridor(s). For such a purpose, the supply chains are defined and the methodology for assessing their performances under given conditions is developed. The methodology consists of the analytical models of indicators of the operational, economic, environmental and social performances of particular corridors and corresponding supply chains assumed to be dependent on the infrastructural and technical/technological capabilities. The models of particular indicators have been applied according to “what-if” scenario approach to assessing performances of the long-distance intercontinental inland and maritime freight transport corridors spreading between China and Europe in the scope of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and “A New Maritime Silk Road” policy initiative. The results prove that the intermodal inland rail/road alternative could act as a serious competitive alternative to its maritime deep-sea counterpart under given conditions. Nevertheless, in order to realize the opportunities, large investments in the inland rail/road infrastructure are required to appropriately connect China with Europe. ...

Analysis, Modelling, Planning, and Design

Book (2018) - Milan Janic
This book covers the analysis, modelling, planning, and design of airport landside access modes and their systems. It elaborates on the issues and related problems of airport landside accessibility in an innovative, comprehensive and systematic way. In addition to the general concept of accessibility, the book addresses the analysis and modelling of infrastructure-related, technological, operational, economic, social and environmental performance of road- and rail-based transport systems, as well as the core principles of their planning and design. ...
Abstract (2018) - Kees van Goeverden, Milan Janic, Dimitris Milakis
Long-distance travelling accounts for a significant and increasing part of the mileage of person travel and the respective environmental impacts (Van Goeverden et al, 2016). Energy consumption and emissions connected with long-distance travelling might be substantially reduced through use of evacuated tubes of low air resistance, such as the recently proposed Hyperloop transport system (HL). This paper explores the extent to which a fully developed HL network system in Europe could reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions of long-distance passenger transport. ...

MAGLEV, HSR (High Speed Rail) and HL (Hyperloop)

Abstract (2018) - Milan Janic
Journal article (2018) - Milan Janić
This paper deals with an assessment of the potential of conventional (oil-kerosene) Jet-A1/8 and alternative synthetic & biomass-derived SPK (Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene) and LH2 (Liquid Hydrogen) fuels for "greening" commercial air transportation through reducing its fuel consumption and related direct emissions of GHG (Green House Gases) in the medium- and long-term period of time. For such a purpose, the convenient analytical models for estimating this fuel consumption and corresponding direct emissions of GHG have been developed and applied according to "what-if" scenario approach. The results have shown that: i) Introducing the alternative SPK (F-T&HRJ) fuels fully (i.e., 100% replacement of Jet-A1/8 fuel) would bring only a marginal reduction of the cumulative direct emissions of CO2. Such reduction would not substantially contribute to achieving the globally agreed targets on reducing GHG emissions; and ii) Introducing the alternative LH2 fuel would almost immediately bring rather substantive reduction of the cumulative emissions of CO2. If such introduction started earlier, it would contribute to achieving the globally agreed targets on reducing emissions of GHG during given period. ...
Conference paper (2017) - Kees van Goeverden, Dimitris Milakis, Milan Janic, Rob Konings
This paper deals with an analysis of performances of the HL (Hyperloop) transport system considered as an advanced transport alternative to the existing APT (Air Passenger Transport) and HSR (High Speed Rail) systems. The considered performances are operational, financial, social and environmental. The operational performance include capacity and quality of service provided to the system’s users-passengers with attributes such as door-to-door travel time consisting of the access and egress time, schedule delay, in-vehicle time, and interchange time. The economic performances embrace the costs and revenues of operating the system. The costs include that for infrastructure, vehicles, traffic management facilities and equipment, and employees. The revenues embrace earnings from pricing users/passengers. The environmental performances include energy consumption and related emissions of GHGs (Green House Gases), and land use. The social performances are considered to be noise and safety. The analytical models of indicators of these performances are developed and applied to the scenario of operating the HL system on the short- to medium-haul travel distances/routes. These are then compared to the corresponding performances of the HSR and APT. This comparison has shown that the HL system may possess some advantages but also disadvantages regarding particular performances. ...
Journal article (2017) - Milan Janić
The paper deals with analysing and modelling some effects of three solutions for matching the airport runway system (landing) capacity to corresponding demand. These are: i) charging congestion applied to the NY LaGuardia airport (New York, USA); ii) deployment of the innovative operational procedures supported by the new technologies developing in the scope of European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and U.S. NextGen (Next Generation) program applied to the system of two closely-spaced parallel runways at Dubai International airport (Dubai, UAE (United Arab Emirates)); and iii) building the new additional runway(s) applied to the runway system of three London airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted (London, UK).The results have shown that each of the considered solutions can contribute to more efficient and effective matching of the airport runway (landing) capacity to the current and expected (prospectively growing) airside demand under given (specified) conditions. ...
Journal article (2016) - Milan Janic
The air transport system consists of airports, airlines, and air traffic control (ATC). Airports are considered the system infrastructure occupying a certain area of land. This can be roughly divided into (i) the airside area containing runways, taxiways, and the apron-gate complex and (ii) the landside area including passenger and cargo terminals; space, buildings, facilities, and equipment for airport/airline-related activities; as well as the overall infrastructure of the airport ground access systems. Most airports are confronted with challenges such as incompatibility of land use and a lack of free land to expand to accommodate growing demand efficiently, effectively, and safely. To adequately deal with these challenges, an effective and compatible plan of airport land use needs to be developed with components such as (i) the airport design and operational criteria; (ii) requirements for safety of flights and unique land-use provision(s); and (iii) performances of land use. This article deals with analyzing, modeling, and assessing the physical/spatial, operational, economic, social, and environmental performances of land use by airport airside and landside areas. For such a purpose, a convenient methodology based on the indicators and their measures of performances of land use is developed and applied to selected airport cases. ...
Journal article (2016) - M. Janic
This paper deals with a multidimensional examination of the infrastructural, technical/technological, operational, economic, social, and environmental performances of high-speed rail (HSR) systems, including their overview, analysis of some real-life cases, and limited (analytical) modeling. The infrastructural performances reflect design and geometrical characteristics of the HSR lines and stations. The technical/technological performances relate to the characteristics of rolling stock, i.e., high-speed trains, and supportive facilities and equipment, i.e., the power supply, signaling, and traffic control and management system(s). The operational performances include the capacity and productivity of HSR lines and rolling stock, and quality of services. The economic performances refer to the HSR systems’ costs, revenues, and their relationship. The social performances relate to the impacts of HSR systems on the society such as congestion, noise, and safety, and their externalities, and the effects in terms of contribution to the local and global/country socialeconomic development. Finally, the environmental performances of the HSR systems reflect their energy consumption and related emissions of green house gases, land use, and corresponding externalities. ...