Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is a renewable energy technology (RET), that harnesses energy from the temperature differences between warm surface and cold deep-sea water. OTEC can generate a continuous stream of renewable electricity, functioning as a baseload energy source. To achieve this the ocean water temperature difference must be at least 20°C, favouring locations close to the equator where surface water temperatures are typically higher. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as Aruba have been identified as potential markets for OTEC, as many of them are located within such regions and exhibit favourable conditions for OTEC.

OTEC has the highest ocean energy resource potential of all ocean energy technologies. However, of the 44PWh/year in global resource potential very little is being harnessed. With OTEC currently in a pre-commercial phase it has faced challenges advancing to the commercial phase. A large contributing factor to this is a lack of financing and government support for the technology. The technology has a high capital cost with a relatively modest amount of operational plants built to date, providing a limited track record. Furthermore, on smaller scales the technology is generally not economically viable as it experiences considerable economies of scale, becoming substantially more economic with larger plant capacities. This results in a phenomenon known as the “valley of death” where smaller pre-commercial OTEC plants are not commercially attractive but results from such facilities are needed to convince financiers that the risk of building such plants is manageable.
To overcome this “valley of death” research exploring the technological and economic feasibility of implementing OTEC is vital to bolster confidence among investors and governmental bodies. This thesis project aims to contribute to this by conducting a techno-economic, power system model and stakeholder and institutional analysis exploring OTEC’s implementation in Aruba with the main research question:

Is it technically and economically feasible to implement OTEC in Aruba’s energy system and if so what technical, economic and social factors play a role?

The research is conducted using power system modelling as well as qualitative analysis. A concep- tual model of Aruba’s power system based on fully renewable technologies has been developed in a modelling and simulation tool. In this work on and offshore wind, land-based utility scale and floating PV and OTEC are analysed with Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) for storage capacity. The model has been formulated as an optimisation of a generation problem to assess cost-optimal solu- tions for generation investments to meet demand while satisfying all constraints. This is firstly done for a reference scenario in 2030, 2040 and 2050 and subsequently for alternative scenarios in 2050. Based on these optimisation and stakeholder and institutional analysis results, the feasibility of OTEC’s implementation in Aruba is evaluated and recommendations are provided on whether and how OTEC could be implemented...