This thesis, written for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, explores how the Netherlands can address persistent labour shortages caused by demographic ageing and declining birth rates. By combining System Dynamics (SD) modeling with Robust Decision Making (RDM),
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This thesis, written for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, explores how the Netherlands can address persistent labour shortages caused by demographic ageing and declining birth rates. By combining System Dynamics (SD) modeling with Robust Decision Making (RDM), the research examines policy performance under a wide range of uncertain future conditions. The SD model captures interactions between population trends, labour supply and demand, productivity, migration, and retirement policies, while RDM assesses which strategies remain effective across scenarios. Key findings indicate that adaptive migration and wage policies are more robust than adjustments to retirement age. Sensitivity analyses reveal critical dependencies on birth rates and wage-productivity dynamics. The results suggest prioritizing flexible migration and wage strategies, supported by complementary measures such as maintaining birth rates and enabling wage increases to influence productivity. While political feasibility varies across policy options, the research identifies viable pathways to stabilize the labour market and support long-term economic resilience.