People living behind coastal dunes depend on the strength and resilience of dunes for their safety. Forecasts of hydrodynamic conditions and morphological change on a timescale of several days can provide essential information to protect lives and property. In order for forecasts to protect they need be relevant, accurate, provide lead time, and information on confidence. Here we show how confident one can be in morphological predictions of several days ahead. The question is answered by assessing the forecast skill as a function of lead time. The study site in the town of Egmond, the Netherlands, where people depend on the dunes for their safety, is used because it is such a rich data source, with a history of forecasts, tide gauges and bathymetry measurements collected by video cameras. Even though the forecasts are on a local scale, the methods are generally applicable. It is shown that the intertidal beach volume change can be predicted up to three days ahead.

Rip currents are wave-induced and off-shore directed flows which occur frequently in the surf zone and can pose a serious threat to swimmers. While the behaviour of rip currents has been studied in swell-dominated environments, less is known about their characteristics in wind-sea dominated environments. This study aims to improve the knowledge on rip currents in these environments such as the Dutch coast. In a field campaign at Egmond aan Zee (The Netherlands), Lagrangian velocities in the surf zone were measured with drifter floats. An extensive dataset of rip current measurements was collected from which parameters that initiate rip currents and affect their mean flow properties were identified. Numerical simulations with XBeach aided to understand and confirm the observations made in the field. A reduction of the hydrodynamic parameters along with simplification of the bathymetry in the model allowed for identification of the governing rip current parameters, which can be the basis for a warning system.