People living behind coastal dunes depend on the strength and resilience of dunes for their safety. Forecasts of hydrodynamic conditions and morphological change on a timescale of several days can provide essential information to protect lives and property. In order for forecasts to protect they need be relevant, accurate, provide lead time, and information on confidence. Here we show how confident one can be in morphological predictions of several days ahead. The question is answered by assessing the forecast skill as a function of lead time. The study site in the town of Egmond, the Netherlands, where people depend on the dunes for their safety, is used because it is such a rich data source, with a history of forecasts, tide gauges and bathymetry measurements collected by video cameras. Even though the forecasts are on a local scale, the methods are generally applicable. It is shown that the intertidal beach volume change can be predicted up to three days ahead.

Aquatic vegetation in the coastal zone attenuates wave energy and reduces the risk of coastal hazards, e.g., flooding. Besides the attenuation of sea-swell waves, vegetation may also affect infragravity-band (IG) waves and wave setup. To date, knowledge on the effect of vegetation on IG waves and wave setup is lacking, while they are potentially important parameters for coastal risk assessment. In this study, the storm impact model XBeach is extended with formulations for attenuation of sea-swell and IG waves, and wave setup effects in two modes: the sea-swell wave phase-resolving (nonhydrostatic) and the phase-averaged (surfbeat) mode. In surfbeat mode, a wave shape model is implemented to capture the effect of nonlinear wave-vegetation interaction processes on wave setup. Both modeling modes are verified using data from two flume experiments with mimic vegetation and show good skill in computing the sea-swell and IG wave transformation, and wave setup. In surfbeat mode, the wave setup prediction greatly improves when using the wave shape model, while in nonhydrostatic mode (nonlinear) intrawave effects are directly accounted for. Subsequently, the model is used for a range of coastal geomorphological configurations by varying bed slope and vegetation extent. The results indicate that the effect of wave-vegetation interaction on wave setup may be relevant for a range of typical coastal geomorphological configurations (e.g., relatively steep to gentle slope coasts fronted by vegetation).

Rip currents are wave-induced and off-shore directed flows which occur frequently in the surf zone and can pose a serious threat to swimmers. While the behaviour of rip currents has been studied in swell-dominated environments, less is known about their characteristics in wind-sea dominated environments. This study aims to improve the knowledge on rip currents in these environments such as the Dutch coast. In a field campaign at Egmond aan Zee (The Netherlands), Lagrangian velocities in the surf zone were measured with drifter floats. An extensive dataset of rip current measurements was collected from which parameters that initiate rip currents and affect their mean flow properties were identified. Numerical simulations with XBeach aided to understand and confirm the observations made in the field. A reduction of the hydrodynamic parameters along with simplification of the bathymetry in the model allowed for identification of the governing rip current parameters, which can be the basis for a warning system.