Globally, efforts are being made to transition energy systems from a fossil fuel based one towards one based on renewable energy. In the Netherlands, this is done by means of regional energy strategies (RES). In literature, the of use scenarios to formulate strategies aimed at initiating sustainability transitions is well regarded. However, little attention is given to applications on a regional scale nor to how the application of scenarios contributes to the implementation of strategies. Therefore, the practical application of transition scenarios in two Dutch regional cases (RES A & RES B) is analysed and compared in this research to point out dysfunctionalities and opportunities. For this analysis, a novel framework is established encompassing important concepts for the practical application of transition scenarios, including the scope of the approach as well as the result and procedural functions.
The findings show that the current practical application of transition scenarios in the regional cases is limited to the exploration of strategic directions and as such missing benefits of externally focused and normative approaches that can help to deal with changes in external factors and complexities by identifying robust strategies and pathways of change. It furthermore becomes evident that the procedural functions of transition scenarios can be of great value for the implementation of regional energy strategies when stakeholders are engaged in a meaningful way as this contributes to the driving factors of commitment and cooperation. Finally, an interesting new direction for the field of transition scenarios is revealed in the form of spatial transition scenarios which offers opportunities for supporting integral decision-making in the energy transition.
In conclusion, the application of transition scenarios can contribute to the implementation of regional energy strategies, mainly through its procedural functions as it allows participants to broaden and narrow their ideas about the future. In future application of transition scenarios, it is important to consider the time and scale of application as this can inform the requirements for selecting a suitable approach.