More than 60% of meteorite finds on Earth originate from Antarctica. Using a data-driven analysis that identifies meteorite-rich sites in Antarctica, we show climate warming causes many extraterrestrial rocks to be lost from the surface by melting into the ice sheet. At present, approximately 5,000 meteorites become inaccessible per year (versus ~1,000 finds per year) and, independent of the emissions scenario, ~24% will be lost by 2050, potentially rising to ∼76% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.

Over 60% of all meteorites found on Earth are found in Antarctica. Antarctic meteorites are collected from so-called
blue ice areas in the interior of the continent. In these blue ice areas, meteorological processes and a redirected ice flow lead to the removal of surface layers. All material that was once embedded in the removed layers of ice becomes exposed at the surface, including meteorites. Consequently, meteorite concentrations can be collected in the field, as the meteorites’ dark color visually contrasts with the light-blue colored ice. However, meteorites can disappear from the surface when they warm up in the sun and melt the underlying ice. The dark meteorites warm up more than the ice as they absorb more solar radiation. As such, most of the ice remains frozen, but very local melt takes place directly under the meteorite. This melt creates a depression in the ice which over time deepens to a hole, and in conjunction with refreezing meltwater the meteorite fully disappears from the surface, hidden from sight during recovery missions. This process can explain why no meteorites have been found in areas where temperatures are relatively high [1]. Moreover, in a warming climate, meteorites are more prone to become unrecoverable.
Using a data-driven approach, we estimated that with the currently increasing surface temperatures, meteorite loss rates exceed recovery rates by a factor of five [2]. To estimate this loss rate, we first calculated the total number of Antarctic meteorites using a machine learning algorithm that identifies meteorite-rich sites using over 12,000 known meteorite finding locations and their corresponding properties such as ice flow velocity and surface temperature. Next, we used the same algorithm, but altered the surface temperature input based on regional climate model simulations. Consequently, we obtained the number of meteorites until the end of the century under a low and a high emissions scenario. Until mid-century, the projected losses are identical for the emissions scenarios, after which losses are reduced for the low emissions scenario and nearly constant for the high emissions scenario. By correlating meteorite losses directly to global temperature increases, we estimated that for every tenth of a degree of global warming 1-2% of the current number of meteorites is lost.
These future projections demonstrate how climate change threatens Antarctic meteorites. With temperatures remaining well below zero, even with several degrees of warming, meteorites are affected even by very minor (decimal) increases of surface temperatures during exceptionally warm events, which are expected to occur more frequently. These results motivate an intensification of Antarctic meteorite recovery missions, prioritizing the most prone low-elevation areas.
References:
[1] Harvey, R. (2003) Geochemistry 63(2):93-147.
[2] Tollenaar, V., Zekollari, H., Kittel, C., Farinotti, D., Lhermitte, S., Debaille, V., Goderis, S., Claeys, P., Joy, K.H., and Pattyn, F. (2024) Nature Climate Change 14(4):340-343.

The future contributions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise will depend on the evolution of its surface mass balance (SMB), which could amplify/dampen mass losses increasingly observed at the ice sheet's edge. In situ constraints of SMB over annual-to-decadal timescales consist mostly of firn/ice cores that have a surface footprint cm. SMB constraints also come from climate models, which have a higher temporal resolution but a larger surface footprint of several km. We use ice-penetrating radar data to obtain an intermediate spatial and temporal resolution SMB record over three ice rises along the Princess Ragnhild Coast. The co-located ice cores allow us to obtain absolute radar-derived SMB rates at a multi-annual-to-decadal temporal resolution. By comparing the ice core SMB measurements and the radar-derived SMB records, we determine that pointwise measurements of SMB are representative of a small surface area, m radius extending from the ice core drill site for the ice rises studied here, and that the pointwise measurements are systematically 7–15 cm w.e. a lower than the mean SMB value calculated for the whole ice rises. However, ice core records are representative of an entire ice rise's temporal variability at the temporal resolution examined.

Meteorites provide a unique view into the origin and evolution of the Solar System. Antarctica is the most productive region for recovering meteorites, where these extraterrestrial rocks concentrate at meteorite stranding zones. To date, meteorite-bearing blue ice areas are mostly identified by serendipity and through costly reconnaissance missions. Here, we identify meteorite-rich areas by combining state-of-the-art datasets in a machine learning algorithm and provide continent-wide estimates of the probability to find meteorites at any given location. The resulting set of ca. 600 meteorite stranding zones, with an estimated accuracy of over 80%, reveals the existence of unexplored zones, some of which are located close to research stations. Our analyses suggest that less than 15% of all meteorites at the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet have been recovered to date. The data-driven approach will greatly facilitate the quest to collect the remaining meteorites in a coordinated and cost-effective manner.