Background According to the World Health Organization, 600 million cases of foodborne disease occurred in 2010. To inform risk management strategies aimed at reducing this burden, attribution to specific foods is necessary. Objective We present attribution estimates for foodborne pathogens (Campylobacter spp., enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Shiga-toxin producing E. coli, nontyphoidal Salmonella enterica, Crypto-sporidium spp., Brucella spp., and Mycobacterium bovis) in three African countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Rwanda) to support risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis in three projects aimed at increasing safety of beef, dairy, poultry meat and vegetables in these countries. Methods We used the same methodology as the World Health Organization, i.e., Structured Expert Judgment according to Cooke’s Classical Model, using three different panels for the three countries. Experts were interviewed remotely and completed calibration questions during the interview without access to any resources. They then completed target questions after the interview, using resources as considered necessary. Expert data were validated using two objective measures, calibration score or statistical accuracy, and information score. Per-formance-based weights were derived from the two measures to aggregate experts’ distributions into a so-called decision maker. The analysis was made using Excalibur software, and resulting distributions were normalized using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Individual experts’ uncertainty assessments resulted in modest statistical accuracy and high information scores, suggesting overconfident assessments. Nevertheless, the optimized item-weighted decision maker was statistically accurate and informative. While there is no evidence that animal pathogenic ETEC strains are infectious to humans, a sizeable propor-tion of ETEC illness was attributed to animal source foods as experts considered contamina-tion of food products by infected food handlers can occur at any step in the food chain. For all pathogens, a major share of the burden was attributed to food groups of interest. Within food groups, the highest attribution was to products consumed raw, but processed products were also considered important sources of infection. Conclusions Cooke’s Classical Model with performance-based weighting provided robust uncertainty estimates of the attribution of foodborne disease in three African countries. Attribution estimates will be combined with country-level estimates of the burden of foodborne disease to inform decision making by national authorities.

A recent ample Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) study quantified the source attribution of 33 distinct pathogens in the United States. The source attribution for five transmission pathways: food, water, animal contact, person-to-person, and environment has been considered. This chapter will detail how SEJ has been applied to answer questions of interest by discussing the process used, strengths identified, and lessons learned from designing a large SEJ study. The focus will be on the undertaken steps that have prepared the expert elicitation.

Background Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. Conclusions We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs.