Mathias Trabs
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4 records found
1
Adaptive confidence bands for Markov chains and diffusions
Estimating the invariant measure and the drift
As a starting point we prove a functional central limit theorem for estimators of the invariant measure of a geometrically ergodic Harris-recurrent Markov chain in a multi-scale space. This allows to construct confidence bands for the invariant density with optimal (up to undersmoothing) L∞-diameter by using wavelet projection estimators. In addition our setting applies to the drift estimation of diffusions observed discretely with fixed observation distance. We prove a functional central limit theorem for estimators of the drift function and finally construct adaptive confidence bands for the drift by using a completely data-driven estimator.
Option calibration of exponential Lévy models
Confidence intervals and empirical results
We estimate linear functionals in the classical deconvolution problem by kernel estimators. We obtain a uniform central limit theorem with √n-rate on the assumption that the smoothness of the functionals is larger than the ill-posedness of the problem, which is given by the polynomial decay rate of the characteristic function of the error. The limit distribution is a generalized Brownian bridge with a covariance structure that depends on the characteristic function of the error and on the functionals. The proposed estimators are optimal in the sense of semiparametric efficiency. The class of linear functionals is wide enough to incorporate the estimation of distribution functions. The proofs are based on smoothed empirical processes and mapping properties of the deconvolution operator.