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Arnoud Higler
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Large-Scale Hydrogen Import Pathways to the Netherlands
A Techno-Economic Analysis of conversion, transportation and reconversion processes of two specific hydrogen carriers
Large-scale import of green hydrogen is expected to become essential for the Netherlands to achieve its climate targets and secure its future energy supply, as domestic hydrogen production alone will not be sufficient to meet projected demand. However, hydrogen gas has a very low volumetric energy density, making direct long-distance transport economically challenging. To overcome this limitation, hydrogen can be compressed, liquefied, or converted into a chemical carrier. Although these transport pathways have been extensively studied, the conversion and reconversion stages are often treated as a black box, making a transparent comparison between different hydrogen carriers difficult. This study addresses this gap by developing detailed models of these stages under identical assumptions to determine which hydrogen carrier provides the most cost-effective import pathway to the Netherlands. Following a screening of multiple candidates, ammonia and a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), in the form of methylcyclohexane (MCH), were selected for further evaluation.
A case study is considered in which hydrogen is imported from Brazil, where lower production costs are expected due to abundant renewable energy resources. The conversion and reconversion processes are modelled in Aspen Plus, including reaction kinetics, to quantify energy consumption and determine equipment requirements. Combined with shipping and storage costs, these results are used to calculate the total landed cost of hydrogen delivered to the Dutch hydrogen network.
At an assumed hydrogen production cost of 6 $/kg, both the ammonia and LOHC pathways result in a landed cost of approximately 11 $/kg, which is below the expected domestic production cost and therefore indicates a potential economic incentive for import. However, when a more conservative production cost of 8 $/kg is assumed, the landed cost exceeds the domestic production cost, removing this incentive. The two pathways show very similar overall costs, as the lower hydrogen efficiency of the ammonia route is largely offset by the lower energy density of MCH and its resulting transport requirements. Since neither carrier is clearly superior from an economic perspective, the final selection is likely to depend on additional factors such as technological maturity, safety considerations, and existing infrastructure.
It should be noted that these conclusions are specific to the Brazil-to-Netherlands case study. Due to the lower energy density of MCH, the LOHC pathway requires more shipping capacity and becomes increasingly sensitive to transport distance. For longer transport routes, the ammonia pathway is therefore expected to become the more economically favourable option. ...
A case study is considered in which hydrogen is imported from Brazil, where lower production costs are expected due to abundant renewable energy resources. The conversion and reconversion processes are modelled in Aspen Plus, including reaction kinetics, to quantify energy consumption and determine equipment requirements. Combined with shipping and storage costs, these results are used to calculate the total landed cost of hydrogen delivered to the Dutch hydrogen network.
At an assumed hydrogen production cost of 6 $/kg, both the ammonia and LOHC pathways result in a landed cost of approximately 11 $/kg, which is below the expected domestic production cost and therefore indicates a potential economic incentive for import. However, when a more conservative production cost of 8 $/kg is assumed, the landed cost exceeds the domestic production cost, removing this incentive. The two pathways show very similar overall costs, as the lower hydrogen efficiency of the ammonia route is largely offset by the lower energy density of MCH and its resulting transport requirements. Since neither carrier is clearly superior from an economic perspective, the final selection is likely to depend on additional factors such as technological maturity, safety considerations, and existing infrastructure.
It should be noted that these conclusions are specific to the Brazil-to-Netherlands case study. Due to the lower energy density of MCH, the LOHC pathway requires more shipping capacity and becomes increasingly sensitive to transport distance. For longer transport routes, the ammonia pathway is therefore expected to become the more economically favourable option. ...
Large-scale import of green hydrogen is expected to become essential for the Netherlands to achieve its climate targets and secure its future energy supply, as domestic hydrogen production alone will not be sufficient to meet projected demand. However, hydrogen gas has a very low volumetric energy density, making direct long-distance transport economically challenging. To overcome this limitation, hydrogen can be compressed, liquefied, or converted into a chemical carrier. Although these transport pathways have been extensively studied, the conversion and reconversion stages are often treated as a black box, making a transparent comparison between different hydrogen carriers difficult. This study addresses this gap by developing detailed models of these stages under identical assumptions to determine which hydrogen carrier provides the most cost-effective import pathway to the Netherlands. Following a screening of multiple candidates, ammonia and a liquid organic hydrogen carrier (LOHC), in the form of methylcyclohexane (MCH), were selected for further evaluation.
A case study is considered in which hydrogen is imported from Brazil, where lower production costs are expected due to abundant renewable energy resources. The conversion and reconversion processes are modelled in Aspen Plus, including reaction kinetics, to quantify energy consumption and determine equipment requirements. Combined with shipping and storage costs, these results are used to calculate the total landed cost of hydrogen delivered to the Dutch hydrogen network.
At an assumed hydrogen production cost of 6 $/kg, both the ammonia and LOHC pathways result in a landed cost of approximately 11 $/kg, which is below the expected domestic production cost and therefore indicates a potential economic incentive for import. However, when a more conservative production cost of 8 $/kg is assumed, the landed cost exceeds the domestic production cost, removing this incentive. The two pathways show very similar overall costs, as the lower hydrogen efficiency of the ammonia route is largely offset by the lower energy density of MCH and its resulting transport requirements. Since neither carrier is clearly superior from an economic perspective, the final selection is likely to depend on additional factors such as technological maturity, safety considerations, and existing infrastructure.
It should be noted that these conclusions are specific to the Brazil-to-Netherlands case study. Due to the lower energy density of MCH, the LOHC pathway requires more shipping capacity and becomes increasingly sensitive to transport distance. For longer transport routes, the ammonia pathway is therefore expected to become the more economically favourable option.
A case study is considered in which hydrogen is imported from Brazil, where lower production costs are expected due to abundant renewable energy resources. The conversion and reconversion processes are modelled in Aspen Plus, including reaction kinetics, to quantify energy consumption and determine equipment requirements. Combined with shipping and storage costs, these results are used to calculate the total landed cost of hydrogen delivered to the Dutch hydrogen network.
At an assumed hydrogen production cost of 6 $/kg, both the ammonia and LOHC pathways result in a landed cost of approximately 11 $/kg, which is below the expected domestic production cost and therefore indicates a potential economic incentive for import. However, when a more conservative production cost of 8 $/kg is assumed, the landed cost exceeds the domestic production cost, removing this incentive. The two pathways show very similar overall costs, as the lower hydrogen efficiency of the ammonia route is largely offset by the lower energy density of MCH and its resulting transport requirements. Since neither carrier is clearly superior from an economic perspective, the final selection is likely to depend on additional factors such as technological maturity, safety considerations, and existing infrastructure.
It should be noted that these conclusions are specific to the Brazil-to-Netherlands case study. Due to the lower energy density of MCH, the LOHC pathway requires more shipping capacity and becomes increasingly sensitive to transport distance. For longer transport routes, the ammonia pathway is therefore expected to become the more economically favourable option.