This study has been performed in cooperation with TNO and set out to analyze the robustness of Dutch energy transition policies under deep uncertainty for the scope of the built environment sector. Open data is gathered which is used in a System Dynamics model to allow exploration under deep uncertainty. The Adaptive Robust Design methodology has been adopted to understand how energy transition policies can be designed to be more robust under deep uncertainty for the period of 2019-2050. Subsidy-based policy variants have been created, inspired by promising policy instruments from current policy documents. Static, dynamic and mission-oriented policy variants have been simulated to show effects on annual CO2-eq emissions, renovated houses and awarded subsidies. Adaptive policies have shown to be promising to curb undesired influence of uncertainties. However, this study showed that subsidy percentage, alone, does not ensure that policy targets for 2050 are reached. Policies should also ensure ample increase in renovation capacity to keep up with rising demand. The limitation of merely subsidy-based policies resulted in less significant differences between the policy variants. To benefit of the adaptive nature of the climate plan, policies should include ample adjustment mechanisms within policies to realize their goals by adapting to changing circumstances.

The transition towards a sustainable energy system in the built environment is commonly referred to the incremental adoption of a variety of available technologies, practices and policies that may contribute to decrease the environmental impact, at reasonable costs and adequate quality standards. The complexity of the transition requires a sound information provision in order to make decisions which are future proof and optimal in the context of the system dependencies by both public and private parties. This information provision is lacking maturity, and in the era of Big and Open Data, it is believed that data has a significant role to play in the improvement of the information provision towards all stakeholders. This paper presents a study on the information provision in the Dutch energy transition with the focus on the thermal urban transition away from natural-gas. The study adopts the DE approach to answer the following research question: How and under which Data Ecosystem can Open and Big Data be utilized to improve the information provision and support decision-making in the transition towards a sustainable urban thermal energy system, in the Netherlands, given the perceptions and resources of stakeholders?