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R. van Nes
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1
Recent years have seen a rise in computation power, storage and opensource data has become more accessible. This results in new opportunities for microsimulation models. Most of these models require a realistic population but the data for this is usually not available. Therefore, population synthesis is used to generate the statistical equivalent of the real population. Since the majority of trips, tours and activity schedules are centered around the home end. It is also important to not only generate a synthetic population but to also attach these households to actual houses. A geodata source is needed for this and OpenStreetMap can be a viable data source. This research focuses on developing a proof of concept of a method for population synthesis at the fine scale of neighborhoods and using OpenStreetMap data to add spatial units to this population. The methodology is developed through literature and implementation in a case study.
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Recent years have seen a rise in computation power, storage and opensource data has become more accessible. This results in new opportunities for microsimulation models. Most of these models require a realistic population but the data for this is usually not available. Therefore, population synthesis is used to generate the statistical equivalent of the real population. Since the majority of trips, tours and activity schedules are centered around the home end. It is also important to not only generate a synthetic population but to also attach these households to actual houses. A geodata source is needed for this and OpenStreetMap can be a viable data source. This research focuses on developing a proof of concept of a method for population synthesis at the fine scale of neighborhoods and using OpenStreetMap data to add spatial units to this population. The methodology is developed through literature and implementation in a case study.
What first? Public transport or houses?
A study on the development timing of public transport in a residential area
Modern cities are seeking possibilities to create healthy, sustainable and liveable urban environments. Yet these endeavours should not come at the expense of the accessibility of the city. Therefore, many cities try to promote the use of sustainable modes of transportation by developing transit-oriented neighbourhoods. An ongoing debate related to these developments is the development timing of the public transport connection. Even though it is generally assumed that early provision of public transport is favourable, the significance of this notion has not yet been studied, and the considerations of the different parties involved in the decision making process in practice are unclear. Therefore, the aim of this research is to explore what development strategy of public transport in a residential area results in high ridership levels while still being feasible for the different parties involved. This is done through an evaluation of both the influence of development timing on travel behaviour and an evaluation of the development process based on stakeholder interviews. The results suggest that it is indeed beneficial to provide public transport from the moment the first inhabitants start to live in the area. However, the study also revealed that provision in a later stage does not necessarily mean that it is doomed to fail, as the car-ownership levels can slowly decrease in the years after the public transport is provided. The stakeholder interviews show development strategy needs to be tailored to the specific development, as the feasibility of a development strategy and the need for early provision are highly dependent on the location and the budget available for the subsidisation of public transport is limited. Thus, a tailor made solution is required for each location.
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Modern cities are seeking possibilities to create healthy, sustainable and liveable urban environments. Yet these endeavours should not come at the expense of the accessibility of the city. Therefore, many cities try to promote the use of sustainable modes of transportation by developing transit-oriented neighbourhoods. An ongoing debate related to these developments is the development timing of the public transport connection. Even though it is generally assumed that early provision of public transport is favourable, the significance of this notion has not yet been studied, and the considerations of the different parties involved in the decision making process in practice are unclear. Therefore, the aim of this research is to explore what development strategy of public transport in a residential area results in high ridership levels while still being feasible for the different parties involved. This is done through an evaluation of both the influence of development timing on travel behaviour and an evaluation of the development process based on stakeholder interviews. The results suggest that it is indeed beneficial to provide public transport from the moment the first inhabitants start to live in the area. However, the study also revealed that provision in a later stage does not necessarily mean that it is doomed to fail, as the car-ownership levels can slowly decrease in the years after the public transport is provided. The stakeholder interviews show development strategy needs to be tailored to the specific development, as the feasibility of a development strategy and the need for early provision are highly dependent on the location and the budget available for the subsidisation of public transport is limited. Thus, a tailor made solution is required for each location.
As a solution to the high greenhouse gas emissions and declining quality of life caused by the private vehicle, the mobility hub is introduced. The mobility hub is a place where multiple modalities come together, including public transport and shared mobility. As the mobility hub is a relatively new innovation, limited research is available on the topic, especially on finding potentially suitable locations for a mobility hub. In this research, the knowledge gap on the potential of locations for a mobility hub is addressed by developing a globally applicable methodology to determine the potential of locations for a specific mobility hub type: the regional mobility hub. The regional mobility hub is located outside of the city center, and for this type of hub, an area potential determination methodology has the highest added value. The developed methodology is a combination of the GIS-Multi-Criteria Analysis and Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis available in the literature, leading to all areas in the region being evaluated for their regional mobility hub potential, taking the end user, operator and government perspective into account. The result is presented in multiple heat maps based on scenarios with varying stakeholder influences. The methodology consists of 5 criteria (Potential demand, Costs, Generalized travel costs, Link to surroundings and Impact) measured by 9 attributes to incorporate all relevant influential factors found in the literature. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the criteria weights. The developed methodology is applied to the region of Rotterdam, to find out whether the methodology works as expected. From multiple analyzes, it appears that the methodology is suitable for tackling the location potential determination problem, as it works logically. In future research, the focus should be on extending the methodology to incorporate freight transportation. Besides, the methodology can be improved by incorporating revealed preferences of shared mobility users. This information can be collected by analyzing the usage of existing shared mobility systems.
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As a solution to the high greenhouse gas emissions and declining quality of life caused by the private vehicle, the mobility hub is introduced. The mobility hub is a place where multiple modalities come together, including public transport and shared mobility. As the mobility hub is a relatively new innovation, limited research is available on the topic, especially on finding potentially suitable locations for a mobility hub. In this research, the knowledge gap on the potential of locations for a mobility hub is addressed by developing a globally applicable methodology to determine the potential of locations for a specific mobility hub type: the regional mobility hub. The regional mobility hub is located outside of the city center, and for this type of hub, an area potential determination methodology has the highest added value. The developed methodology is a combination of the GIS-Multi-Criteria Analysis and Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis available in the literature, leading to all areas in the region being evaluated for their regional mobility hub potential, taking the end user, operator and government perspective into account. The result is presented in multiple heat maps based on scenarios with varying stakeholder influences. The methodology consists of 5 criteria (Potential demand, Costs, Generalized travel costs, Link to surroundings and Impact) measured by 9 attributes to incorporate all relevant influential factors found in the literature. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to determine the criteria weights. The developed methodology is applied to the region of Rotterdam, to find out whether the methodology works as expected. From multiple analyzes, it appears that the methodology is suitable for tackling the location potential determination problem, as it works logically. In future research, the focus should be on extending the methodology to incorporate freight transportation. Besides, the methodology can be improved by incorporating revealed preferences of shared mobility users. This information can be collected by analyzing the usage of existing shared mobility systems.
Analysing Mobility Hubs using Microsimulation Travel Demand Model
The case of OCTAVIUS
Master thesis
(2020)
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Raghu Tippabhatla, R. van Nes, B. van Arem, L.J.N. Brederode, S. van Cranenburgh
The traditional transport hubs are shaping into the idea of the mobility hubs with the advent of multiple vehicle-sharing forms, such as bike-sharing and car-sharing. Also, a gradual shift in the culture of consumption towards more usage and less ownership, as well as the shared economy supported by internet platforms and mobile apps, allows easy access to multiple daily mobility choices, especially in urban environments. The Mobility hubs seek to merge conventional public transport with these new shared services which have the potential to serve as a solution to the first/last mile problem within the public transport and will allow operators increase their ridership. Transport demand models are used to forecast future travel demand but consider the same travel behaviour as that of today. Mobility Hubs have the potential to change the travel behaviour of travellers and travel demand models should not only be able to forecast the future travel demand but also take into consideration the potential changes in travel behaviour due to the mobility hubs. This study deals with a microsimulation travel demand model, OCTAVIUS and to identify the extent to which such a microsimulation demand model can capture the travel behaviour associated with the future mobility hubs.
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The traditional transport hubs are shaping into the idea of the mobility hubs with the advent of multiple vehicle-sharing forms, such as bike-sharing and car-sharing. Also, a gradual shift in the culture of consumption towards more usage and less ownership, as well as the shared economy supported by internet platforms and mobile apps, allows easy access to multiple daily mobility choices, especially in urban environments. The Mobility hubs seek to merge conventional public transport with these new shared services which have the potential to serve as a solution to the first/last mile problem within the public transport and will allow operators increase their ridership. Transport demand models are used to forecast future travel demand but consider the same travel behaviour as that of today. Mobility Hubs have the potential to change the travel behaviour of travellers and travel demand models should not only be able to forecast the future travel demand but also take into consideration the potential changes in travel behaviour due to the mobility hubs. This study deals with a microsimulation travel demand model, OCTAVIUS and to identify the extent to which such a microsimulation demand model can capture the travel behaviour associated with the future mobility hubs.
The urban agenda is demanding new approaches for urban development. Urban flexibility has been recognized as crucial for coping with uncertainty and smart growth has been advocated as a sustainable urban practice. Urban flexibility and smart growth combined lead to a more dynamic land use, in which building adaptation leads to intensification of existing built areas. However, the impacts of such large-scale and faster intensification on transport and accessibility remain unknown, as well as the required policies to respond to those impacts. This study applies scenario planning and transport modelling to explore the implications of dynamic land use for transport and spatial planning, using the city of Eindhoven as case study. Results show that central areas are suitable for dynamic land use, where intensification does not demand any road infrastructure upgrade. Directed development to central areas can increase bike share, but no form of dynamic land use leads to higher shares of public transport. Finally, spatial randomness is the dominant variable on transport and accessibility performance. Further research should look at the interaction between dynamic land use and transport over time and the design of adaptive transport policies in a dynamic land use context.
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The urban agenda is demanding new approaches for urban development. Urban flexibility has been recognized as crucial for coping with uncertainty and smart growth has been advocated as a sustainable urban practice. Urban flexibility and smart growth combined lead to a more dynamic land use, in which building adaptation leads to intensification of existing built areas. However, the impacts of such large-scale and faster intensification on transport and accessibility remain unknown, as well as the required policies to respond to those impacts. This study applies scenario planning and transport modelling to explore the implications of dynamic land use for transport and spatial planning, using the city of Eindhoven as case study. Results show that central areas are suitable for dynamic land use, where intensification does not demand any road infrastructure upgrade. Directed development to central areas can increase bike share, but no form of dynamic land use leads to higher shares of public transport. Finally, spatial randomness is the dominant variable on transport and accessibility performance. Further research should look at the interaction between dynamic land use and transport over time and the design of adaptive transport policies in a dynamic land use context.
Adding new modes to existing transport demand gravity models
Methodology for adding disaggregate discrete choice parameters to an aggregate gravity model
Master thesis
(2018)
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Roy van Kuijk, Bart van Arem, Rob van Nes, Sander van Cranenburgh, L.J.N. Brederode
This thesis describes a methodology for adding information about the preferences for new modes from external discrete choice models to exisiting transport demand gravity models. The methodology consists of 4 steps: (i) translation of deterrence functions towards discrete choice utility functions; (ii) linearization of non-linear translated utility functions, (iii) determination of factors to correct the scale of external models and (iv) the specification of the combined model. The thesis provides a case study related to "Urban Mobility as a Service" for the Eindhoven-Veldhoven area to show the practical validity of this methodology.
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This thesis describes a methodology for adding information about the preferences for new modes from external discrete choice models to exisiting transport demand gravity models. The methodology consists of 4 steps: (i) translation of deterrence functions towards discrete choice utility functions; (ii) linearization of non-linear translated utility functions, (iii) determination of factors to correct the scale of external models and (iv) the specification of the combined model. The thesis provides a case study related to "Urban Mobility as a Service" for the Eindhoven-Veldhoven area to show the practical validity of this methodology.
Car: Book or buy
An explorative study towards the modelling of carsharing participation in the Dutch travel demand model (LMS)
Consumer mobility as a result of e-commerce
A structural equation modelling approach to estimate consumer mobility from shopping attitude and orientation preferences
Master thesis
(2018)
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Yasmine Bal, Serge Hoogendoorn, Rob van Nes, Maarten Kroesen, S Hoogendoorn-Lanser, Mathijs de Haas
The effects of e-commerce on consumer mobility are studied by means of a structural equation modelling analysis. Shopping value and orientation preferences directly affect shopping frequency in the online and offline environment, besides an indirect effect from shopping value via orientation preference to shopping frequency is found significant. The results are different for various product categories. Although the model was not found significant for explaining shopping trip frequency or kilometrage, the results for shopping frequency are a good starting point for evaluating the impact of e-commerce on consumer mobility. The main conclusion is that e-commerce may substitute for the functional part of shopping, however the activity of shopping as a form of leisure is highly valued by many consumers. For local authorities this appreciation of shopping should be respected when developing city centres.
...
The effects of e-commerce on consumer mobility are studied by means of a structural equation modelling analysis. Shopping value and orientation preferences directly affect shopping frequency in the online and offline environment, besides an indirect effect from shopping value via orientation preference to shopping frequency is found significant. The results are different for various product categories. Although the model was not found significant for explaining shopping trip frequency or kilometrage, the results for shopping frequency are a good starting point for evaluating the impact of e-commerce on consumer mobility. The main conclusion is that e-commerce may substitute for the functional part of shopping, however the activity of shopping as a form of leisure is highly valued by many consumers. For local authorities this appreciation of shopping should be respected when developing city centres.
Master thesis
(2017)
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Daniëlle van Grieken, Rob van Nes, Maaike Snelder, Bart van Arem, Jan Anne Annema
Public transport nodes at airports
A method to clarify the challenges of public transport nodes at airports
As the airports keep on growing, the need to offer sufficient landside public transport access becomes more important. When the public transport stations at airports have a hub function within the network, challenges arise that need to be identified. Within this thesis report, a method is proposed to analyze the challenges.
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As the airports keep on growing, the need to offer sufficient landside public transport access becomes more important. When the public transport stations at airports have a hub function within the network, challenges arise that need to be identified. Within this thesis report, a method is proposed to analyze the challenges.
The Influence of Herding on Departure Choice in Case of an Evacuation
Design and Analysis of a Serious Gaming Experimental Set-up
Doctoral thesis
(2016)
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Mignon van den Berg, Serge Hoogendoorn, Rob van Nes
Extensive research is available on travel choice behaviour which occurs during evacuations in case of natural disasters. Due to the disadvantages of existing data collection techniques, more research is needed to better understand evacuation choice behaviour. The main objective of this thesis is twofold: (1) to develop, apply and assess a new experimental set-up to study evacuation choice behaviour and (2) to quantify the effect of herding on evacuation choice behaviour.
The developed experimental set-up consists of the serious game Everscape and a questionnaire. In Everscape, participants are confronted with an earthquake and have to evacuate from a tsunami. The Everscape data consist per second of the exact location and viewing direction of each participant. The questionnaire collects information on characteristics of the participants (e.g. age, gender) and focusses on what participants did during the Everscape part of the experiment and why they did this.
In total 14 experiments were conducted in which around 400 people participated. The data collected with these experiments were analysed and two main conclusions were drawn. On the one hand, the results support results from literature, meaning realistic evacuation behaviour is found with the experimental set-up. On the other hand, a first step is made towards validly quantifying the effect of herding behaviour on evacuation decisions with empirical data. ...
The developed experimental set-up consists of the serious game Everscape and a questionnaire. In Everscape, participants are confronted with an earthquake and have to evacuate from a tsunami. The Everscape data consist per second of the exact location and viewing direction of each participant. The questionnaire collects information on characteristics of the participants (e.g. age, gender) and focusses on what participants did during the Everscape part of the experiment and why they did this.
In total 14 experiments were conducted in which around 400 people participated. The data collected with these experiments were analysed and two main conclusions were drawn. On the one hand, the results support results from literature, meaning realistic evacuation behaviour is found with the experimental set-up. On the other hand, a first step is made towards validly quantifying the effect of herding behaviour on evacuation decisions with empirical data. ...
Extensive research is available on travel choice behaviour which occurs during evacuations in case of natural disasters. Due to the disadvantages of existing data collection techniques, more research is needed to better understand evacuation choice behaviour. The main objective of this thesis is twofold: (1) to develop, apply and assess a new experimental set-up to study evacuation choice behaviour and (2) to quantify the effect of herding on evacuation choice behaviour.
The developed experimental set-up consists of the serious game Everscape and a questionnaire. In Everscape, participants are confronted with an earthquake and have to evacuate from a tsunami. The Everscape data consist per second of the exact location and viewing direction of each participant. The questionnaire collects information on characteristics of the participants (e.g. age, gender) and focusses on what participants did during the Everscape part of the experiment and why they did this.
In total 14 experiments were conducted in which around 400 people participated. The data collected with these experiments were analysed and two main conclusions were drawn. On the one hand, the results support results from literature, meaning realistic evacuation behaviour is found with the experimental set-up. On the other hand, a first step is made towards validly quantifying the effect of herding behaviour on evacuation decisions with empirical data.
The developed experimental set-up consists of the serious game Everscape and a questionnaire. In Everscape, participants are confronted with an earthquake and have to evacuate from a tsunami. The Everscape data consist per second of the exact location and viewing direction of each participant. The questionnaire collects information on characteristics of the participants (e.g. age, gender) and focusses on what participants did during the Everscape part of the experiment and why they did this.
In total 14 experiments were conducted in which around 400 people participated. The data collected with these experiments were analysed and two main conclusions were drawn. On the one hand, the results support results from literature, meaning realistic evacuation behaviour is found with the experimental set-up. On the other hand, a first step is made towards validly quantifying the effect of herding behaviour on evacuation decisions with empirical data.