Library
home (Home) TU Delft Repository login Login

Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Journal Article (2021)
Author(s)

Volker Grewe (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering, ECATS )

Arvind Gangoli Rao (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering, ECATS )

Tomas Grönstedt (Chalmers University of Technology, ECATS )

Carlos Xisto (ECATS , Chalmers University of Technology)

Florian Linke (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), ECATS )

Joris Melkert (TU Delft - Aerospace Engineering, ECATS )

Jan Middel (Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, ECATS )

Barbara Ohlenforst (Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, ECATS )

Simon Blakey (ECATS , University of Birmingham, University of Sheffield)

undefined More Authors (External organisation)

Research Group
Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects
DOI related publication
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y Final published version
More Info
expand_more
Publication Year
2021
Language
English
Research Group
Aircraft Noise and Climate Effects
Issue number
1
Volume number
12
Article number
3841
Downloads counter
485
Collections
Institutional Repository
Reuse Rights

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.

Abstract

Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.