Understanding long-term labour market dynamics under deep uncertainty
A system dynamics approach for a labour market system
L. van Opstal (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Willem Auping (TU Delft - Policy Analysis)
Enno Schröder (TU Delft - Economics of Technology and Innovation)
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Abstract
The Netherlands is subject to labour scarcity across a variety of industries. While labour scarcity has occurred in the past, only now the consequences of higher educational attainment have become prevalent in the Netherlands. Due to a shortage of vocational workers and a population that is getting older, circumstances ask for adequate policy-making. Although policies like increasing the formal retirement age are put in place to negate labour scarcity, it remains difficult to understand the long-term outcomes of policy implications made in the present.
Understanding this long-term behaviour of the dutch labour system is deemed useful to develop strategies that result in a well-functioning labour market. Since the labour market is intertwined with other systems (e.g. population, educational system and the economy) and is subject to uncertain future developments it results in increased complexity of understanding long-term dynamics. This research aims to develop a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of these systems in deeply uncertain futures.