Flexibility Deployment in the 2050 Dutch Power System: A Seasonal Operational Assessment

Abstract

As the Netherlands moves toward climate neutrality by 2050, the national power system will rely heavily on variable renewable energy sources (VRES) such as offshore wind and solar photovoltaics. While previous studies have examined steady-state implications of overplanting and grid reinforcement, less attention has been given to assessing the effectiveness of flexibility resources during longer time periods. This paper presents an operational assessment of the 2050 Dutch transmission system using full-day optimal power flow simulations for typical summer and winter conditions.The synthetic model of the transmission system is developed in DIgSILENT PowerFactory and includes distributed and centralized supply, batteries, electrolyzers, and demand response mechanisms. Using the Mean-Variance Mapping Optimization (MVMO) algorithm with 15-minute resolution, system operation is optimized to minimize active power losses while respecting voltage and thermal limits. The results show that flexibility resources are essential to ensure demand coverage and reduce transmission congestion, especially during periods of high VRES generation. In winter, the centralized nature of offshore wind leads to regional overloads and higher losses, while summer benefits from decentralized PV generation and more balanced load matching. Batteries and hydrogen units show distinct operational patterns, emphasizing the importance of their strategic placement. These findings support the design of control strategies and infrastructure planning for high-VRES transmission systems.