Battery-less uncertainty-based control of a stand-alone PV-electrolyzer system

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is variable. The output power can change considerably in a matter of minutes, imposing challenges on the control of systems connected downstream. The power from these systems can be smoothed using electric storage, potentially increasing the system cost. An alternative is to deliberately curtail the power before it starts to change. This strategy relies on ultra-short-term forecasting to determine the curtailment point. Unfortunately, forecasting is prone to errors and high uncertainty even in the very short-term, leading to control errors. We propose an active power curtailment control strategy for a stand-alone solar photovoltaic system powering an electrolyzer. Our work's novelty relies on the controller's ability to deal with large forecasting errors and high uncertainty, combining artificial intelligence for predicting the power ramps and fuzzy logic to account for imperfect prediction. We validated our approach using a hardware emulator of the photovoltaic system, power converter and electrolyzer. Under clear sky conditions, the curtailment results in unnecessary energy loss, while under variable irradiance, the controller successfully smooths the power ramps within 10% of the PV system's nominal power. Although our approach was designed for a stand-alone system, its concept can be directly applied to grid-connected systems as well.