Impact of Parameter Uncertainties on Power Electronic Device Lifetime Predictions
F. Kardan Halvaei (TU Delft - DC systems, Energy conversion & Storage)
A. Shekhar (TU Delft - DC systems, Energy conversion & Storage)
P. Bauer (TU Delft - DC systems, Energy conversion & Storage)
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Abstract
Properly addressing uncertainties in reliability analysis is essential for realistic lifetime predictions of power devices. This paper investigates parameter uncertainties on the lifetime estimation of power devices using an empirical lifetime model and Monte Carlo simulations. Key parameters such as junction temperature swings (ΔT
j), minimum junction temperature (T
j,
min), and lifetime model constants are analyzed for their impacts on lifetime outcomes. Sensitivity analysis reveals significant effects from variations in parameters like β
1 and ΔT
j on the expected lifetime and its variability. Simultaneous variations across all parameters further highlight the dominant influence of β
1 on lifetime predictions. The analysis suggests that a 5 % uncertainty margin appears to offer a balanced trade-off between realistic lifetime estimations and predictability. This Study underscores the importance of considering parameter uncertainties for precise reliability evaluations. It addresses a critical gap by examining the rationale behind commonly assumed 5 %, and 10 % uncertainty margins in lifetime modeling. By systematically evaluating these margins’ impacts on key reliability parameters, the study provides a framework for selecting reasonable assumptions based on physical insights and variability analysis, advancing the reliability modeling of power devices.
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